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#Brett Arends's ROI: Social Security and Medicare are everyone’s problem

“Brett Arends's ROI: Social Security and Medicare are everyone’s problem”

Listen up, under 40s: This Social Security battle is yours, too

The multitrillion-dollar battle over Social Security and Medicare spilled over into the annual State of the Union circus Tuesday night.

President Biden (accurately) accused some Republicans of wanting to cut the programs or “sunset” them (so they would expire after five years unless they were explicitly renewed). Many Republicans didn’t like his remarks. Some heckled and booed, shouted “liar!” and worse.

Read: 12 things you need to know about Social Security’s future, explained by the program’s chief number-cruncher

(But no, Kevin McCarthy didn’t rip up Biden’s speech at the end.)

Biden was correct. As we pointed out here before, some Republicans have said precisely what he claimed. (Kevin McCarthy made unguarded remarks on the subject shortly before last November’s midterms: It’s possible the topic cost the GOP their “Red tsunami.”)

Read: Yes, Republicans want changes to Social Security and Medicare entitlements—because some changes are needed

But it’s not just seniors, or those over 40, who should be getting into this fight. Social Security and Medicare are millennials’ and Generation Z’s battle too.

The reasons are pretty simple. They are already benefiting from these programs. And they are going to need them—and how—when they retire.

They’re already benefiting because Social Security isn’t just a pension plan. It also operates as disability insurance, paying benefits if you are severely disabled and cannot work again, and as life insurance, paying survivors benefits to a spouse and children if you die young. So even if you’re decades from retirement you’re already benefiting.

 “For a young worker with average earnings, a spouse, and two children, that’s equivalent to a life insurance policy with a face value of nearly $800,000 in 2020, according to Social Security’s actuaries,” says the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington, D.C. think tank.

And then there’s retirement.

A third of millennials, age 27 to 42, say they are already behind schedule saving for retirement. (So reports Goldman Sachs.) About half of them are worried about having enough savings when they retire, and more than three-quarters say they have been held back from saving for retirement by the need to pay off student loans and other debt.  

Boston College’s Center for Retirement Research projects that a rising share of retirees will struggle to maintain their standards of living after retirement. By the time they reach their 70s, some 40% of millennials will be unable to replace 75% of their preretirement income, the center reports. The equivalent figure for the baby boomers was just 30%. The Urban Institute, a Washington, D.C. think-tank, reached similar findings.

They would have been in trouble even if it weren’t for the lockdowns. As it happens, a third of them say they have already stopped saving at least twice in their careers so far due to financial hardship or an emergency.

Now do the math.

Someone who is 30 years old today can expect to live, on average, into their 80s. Using Social Security’s own life tables, about half of those aged 30 will make it to 83 and a quarter will make it past 90. What will they need? Without Social Security, someone who wants to collect a retirement income of, say, $50,000 a year and keep up with inflation would need to save around $1 million by the time they retire.

But the average Social Security benefit in retirement, around $20,000, cuts that by two-fifths.

Arguably the most important numbers published by the Social Security Administration itself are these: Social Security currently provides about 30% of the entire income of America’s senior citizens. Two-fifths of seniors rely on Social Security for half their income. And for some, about one senior in seven, Social Security accounts for 90% of their income.

Unless you work for state or local government, today you are very unlikely to have a traditional pension plan: The kind that pays you a guaranteed income, typically tied to your salary and years of service, for life. For most of us, Social Security is going to be the only one left.

The value of these benefits is hard to overstate. Social Security pays a retirement income that is guaranteed for life and—crucially—tied to inflation. You can’t even buy that in the financial services market. Life insurers will sell you an annuity, providing an income for life. But few of them have any adjustment to reflect the cost of inflation. And those that do typically cap the annual hike at around 3%. And those policies are very, very expensive.

Social Security and Medicare are in the political crosshairs because they face a funding crisis. Social Security will have to start cutting benefits across the board in about 10 years unless Congress (and voters) step up and find a solution. The funding gap over the next 75 years is about $20 trillion in today’s money.

But the crises do not justify the claims that Social Security is “going bust” or that it “won’t be there for your generation.” That is total nonsense.

Even without any fixes at all the program will still be able to pay around four-fifths of benefits. And various reasonably simple fixes—like ending the cap on taxable earnings, or financially encouraging more people to work a little longer—can make the situation a lot better. A tax equal to 1.7% of annual gross domestic product would fill the gap completely.

Meanwhile, the simplest fix of all is being blocked by what amounts to a conspiracy of the two parties. The Social Security trust fund is running short of money because it is entirely invested in low-returning U.S. Treasury bonds, an investment policy so bad that any normal pension fund manager who tried it would be sued into oblivion for breach of fiduciary responsibilities. If the trust fund were invested like any other pension plan—with most of its money in the stock market—there would be a surplus, even today.

What the Social Security debate could really do with right now is some fresh blood and fresh thinking—which is where the younger generation could step in.

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