The course for this week’s WGC-Dell Match Play Championship, Austin Country Club, measures at under 7,100 yards for a par 71. It’s an interesting match-play course that favors a strong off-the-tee game. We don’t necessarily need a bomber, though. And having a strong résumé on Pete Dye courses can also help.

The main defense for this course is the wind — Texas can get breezy this time of year, which puts even more of a premium on ball striking.

For me, choosing an outright bet for this event comes down to form and the draw. There are no easy matches, and anyone can win on any given day, but there are definitely spots that are more preferable than others.

Xander Schauffele checks both of those boxes for me this week.

For starters, his recent form is great.

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Outside of his missed cut at The Players, Schauffele has finished inside the top 25 of five of his six starts in 2022. He played well at the Valspar Championship last week, gaining more than eight strokes with ball striking.

As for the draw, Schauffele gets a favorable one with Tony Finau, Lucas Herbert and Takumi Kanaya.

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Finau hasn’t put much together in 2022, missing three of his last six cuts without a top-25 finish in any of those events. Herbert was seventh at Bay Hill, but that’s the only time he’s really popped up in his last four events, recording a 68th and two missed cuts. And Kanaya has been hit-and-miss overseas — he has a 14th in Saudi Arabia, but missed the cut in both PGA Tour starts this season.

A player of Schauffele’s skill and form should be able to get out of this group.

The play: Xander Schauffele, 24/1.