#Why Frankie Edgar is a bet-against in this UFC bout

The UFC remains at the APEX in Las Vegas for a card headlined by a bantamweight (135 pounds) bout between Pedro Munhoz and Frankie Edgar.

Munhoz, the fifth-ranked bantamweight, has won three of his last four fights. A close decision loss to No. 1 contender Aljamain Sterling in his last bout provided Munhoz with a dose of the championship environment so important for fighters aspiring to the heights of their division.

Munhoz is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a polished kickboxer who employs forward pressure and constant leg and arm strikes to back up opponents. He wants to press forward and hit opponents with a barrage of power and volume. He’s active on his feet, landing 5.9 strikes per minute, but also is willing to engage, as evidenced by the fact that he absorbs 6.1 strikes per minute. Munhoz wants to press and brawl.

Edgar is the eighth-ranked featherweight dropping a division to take on Munhoz. Edgar spent much of his career at lightweight (155 pounds) before dropping 10 pounds to featherweight. Now he drops 10 more pounds, which I regard as aggressive and to an extent desperate.

Edgar, a wrestling-based warrior from Toms River, N.J., has as many wins as Munhoz has fights. Edgar’s depth of experience coupled with the level of championship-caliber opponents he has faced in his 15-year career have earned the respect and admiration of the mixed martial arts world.

But Edgar, whose epic trilogy with Gray Maynard is now nine years old, is 38. After Saturday night, he’ll have battled elite fighters in three weight divisions.

Fighters older than 38 in weight divisions at 145 or lower are 136-172, or 44.2 percent. Age is tough on heavyweights, but it’s devastating for those who need to use movement to be effective.

One would think Edgar has little else to prove, yet for this battle he must endure the stress of an intrusive weight cut. Aggressive weight cuts not only affect the fighter’s cardio and energy, they also greatly compromise one’s ability to take a flush strike on the chin.

Edgar’s fighting style once employed deft movement and constant pressure wrestling. He strives to force, crowd, bully and maul opponents into the close confines of the corner of the cage before dragging them to the floor when he has it going his way. The issue is that Edgar’s age has compromised his movement, yielding more stand-up confrontations.

One unusual advantage for Edgar is that he’ll hold size and length advantages over Munhoz, a natural bantamweight. Edgar will plan to negate Munhoz’s space early and fight the Brazilian up close and personal, then against the cage and on the floor.

Munhoz, five years younger, must utilize his 81 percent takedown defense to keep Edgar at distance and in a striking battle, where Munhoz’s speed advantage will be noticeable. Edgar has lost three of his last four, two via finishes, so Munhoz will look to meet him in the middle and touch him up from the opening bell.

Munhoz would solidify himself as a top-five talent in the division with a pelt on his mantel that says “Edgar.” He opened -225 and has been bet up to -240. Munhoz is a legitimate favorite, in my judgment. The total is 3.5 Under -130.