#UFC underdog Anthony Smith the bet to upset Aleksander Rakic

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Anthony Smith, left, faces Aleksandar Rakic on Saturday in a light heavyweight UFC bout in Las Vegas.
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Last week’s UFC event from the Apex Center in Las Vegas might have been the most incident-affected production ever. By the end of the night, fans watched nine fights in which favorites ran 2-4-3 and seven of the 18 fighters competed on short notice or were debuting athletes.

It’s becoming clear how arduous it is for the UFC to line up fighters and replacements for 12 fights per card — with 40 to 46 cards per year — even under normal circumstances. Add safety measures to protect the Apex environment from COVID-19 and the task becomes that much more complex.

As an MMA investor, these times have only reinforced my determination to scrutinize the weigh-ins before making final decisions on investments, unless compelling evidence exists to move earlier. With late scratches and replacements, handicapping may become a bit more time-consuming. But remember: The result of that effort produces advantage, and advantage produces profit.

Here is my breakdown for Saturday’s main event

Light heavyweight: Aleksandar Rakic (-310) vs. Anthony Smith ( 270)

The eighth-ranked Rakic (12-2) enters as a steep favorite in this three-round main event. He looked overpowering and explosive in his first four UFC fights against journeymen or aged competition. Rakic is primarily a kickboxer and striker who has a blue belt in BJJ. His preference is to walk opponents down and finish them via violent kicks, elbows and fists.

In this fight Rakic will face an opponent of similar size, which will be unusual for him as he’s used to being the taller, longer and larger fighter. Rakic unleashes 5.1 strikes per minute and is hit by just 2.4 strikes per minute. But whether he can maintain that effectiveness against the elite in the division remains to be seen. Last December he stepped in against Volkan Oezdemir, then ranked eighth in the division, and lost via decision.

In this fight, Rakic takes a serious step up in pedigree, as the fifth-ranked Smith is a grizzled MMA veteran with 48 professional fights in 12 years. Before his last outing, Smith’s only two losses since 2016 had come to Thiago Santos (at 185 pounds) and Jon Jones.

The durable Smith (33-15) is an effective striker and has a black belt in BJJ. His wealth of experience and more complete fight arsenal lead me to question the line. Smith has grappling and wrestling advantages, so he could try to take his hungry young opponent down to the mat for a dose of ground and pound.

A major concern for Smith is that he enters this bout off a devastating knockout loss to Glover Teixeira in his last fight May 13. Many think he is rushing his return after absorbing so much damage, and I regard this as a legitimate concern. This unknown about Smith’s mental and physical condition is a potential explanation as to why the betting market regards Smith as such an underdog, but in my judgment it explains why he’s in an advantageous spot.

I don’t concern myself with Smith’s condition or preparation. A fighter of his experience knows his body and what he may ask of it. In fact, it’s plausible that Smith will enter the cage more prepared than he did for his last fight. I believe Smith will show up highly focused against a dangerous, powerful yet inexperienced opponent.

Once the bell rings, Rakic, off a loss himself, will look to take this fight to Smith and attempt to bully him from the start. Smith must weather the furious first round from the Austrian and take this fight into the second and third rounds, where his experience, guile, conditioning and grit will make this bout compelling.

Rakic opened -330, so the line has not moved much. I like a play on Smith and the over 1.5 rounds, pending weigh-ins of course.