#Time for NHL bettors to be bullish on the New York Rangers

Though the New York Rangers have not been a profitable team thus far, going 4-6 straight up (4-4-2 in the NHL standings) through the first 10 games, bettors should not be discouraged. The Rangers seem to be an improved hockey team, particularly on defense, and backing them in the future could prove to be a rewarding endeavor.

This team has the talent to contend for a playoff spot, and now their shooting and save numbers look as if they’re being driven by stronger play than they were a season ago. Evolving Hockey’s expected goal model determines the likelihood that unblocked shot attempts become goals based on a number of variables such as where the shot was taken from and the type of shot.

For example, a slap shot from the blue line might be assigned a value of 0.03 indicating that it would become a goal only one of every 30 times, while a wrist shot taken right in front of the net might be expected to be converted on one out of every four attempts and therefore would be given a value of 0.25 expected goals. In this example, it would take roughly eight slap shots from the blue line to match the value of the wrist shot taken from in front of the net.

In 2019-20, the Rangers generated 2.45 expected goals per 60 minutes during even-strength play. Their opponents generated 2.75 and thus, the Rangers expected goal differential at even strength was -0.3 for every 60 minutes of even-strength hockey that they played. Only four teams were worse. In actuality, though, the Rangers scored 2.8 goals and allowed 2.65 goals per 60 minutes. This suggests that the team relied heavily on elite shooters, talented goaltenders and luck.

The Rangers’ even-strength goal differential is slightly in the red this season, but it’s close to where it should be. The team is allowing 2.45 expected goals per 60 minutes at even strength, and generating 2.4 themselves. This means the team is generating about as much offense as it did last season, which is good news. The great news, though, is that the Rangers seemingly have cleaned things up on defense. If players such as Mika Zibanejad and Alexis Lafreniere find their scoring touch, the team could start to outperform expectations similar to the way it did a year ago.

One of the biggest changes has come in the form of pace of play. Last season, games featuring the Rangers saw an average pace (all situations) of 6.3 expected goals per 60 minutes compared to 5.6 this season. Rangers’ games are 7-3 to the Under. The Rangers do take a lot of penalties, though, and because officials are game managers, they also draw quite a few penalties. Things can get out of hand quickly with a team that burns the candle at both ends on special teams.

Of course, regardless of whether bettors are looking at the side or the total, they should be cognizant of who the starting netminder is. Igor Shesterkin is the superior netminder and should be valued as such. Nevertheless, bettors shouldn’t be afraid to back the team when backup Alexandar Georgiev is in goal. Georgiev has struggled thus far, but he’s been stopping pucks at or above an average level throughout his entire career and there’s no reason to anticipate a decline.