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#The more serious question Mets should be asking about Robinson Cano: Sherman

#The more serious question Mets should be asking about Robinson Cano: Sherman

What if we are asking the wrong question with Robinson Cano? Not where he should bat in the Mets lineup? But if he should bat in the Mets lineup?

Hall of Famers such as Carlton Fisk, Sam Rice, Honus Wagner and Carl Yastrzemski had down seasons at an advanced age, then rebounded to have multiple high-end seasons. The same was true for another Hall of Famer, Dave Winfield, who missed his age-37 season after back surgery, then over the next four years had an OPS-plus of 122 (100 is average, so 122 represents 22 percent better than MLB average factoring in league and home stadium).

This is the class you are looking at with Cano, a Hall of Fame-level player who had a bad season at an advanced age (96 OPS-plus in his age-36 campaign) and who the Mets need to bounce back for not just one season but many since he is signed through 2023.

But you can also find plenty of star-level players who once they fell never really got back up. Let’s take two second base contemporaries of Cano:

A year after Cano finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, Ian Kinsler finished seventh in 2006 and from there through 2016, Kinsler had a 111 OPS-plus. In his age-35 season, Kinsler fell to 92 OPS-plus and it got worse from there until he retired after last season, an ineffective shell of his once starry prime.

Craig Biggio stumbled in 2000 (93 OPS-plus at age 34), rebounded, then had below-average seasons in 2002-03. The Astros finished second and out of the playoffs both of those seasons; in 2003 they lost the NL Central by one game. Biggio’s last four seasons in OPS-plus were 105, 104, 84 and 71. But Houston kept playing Biggio as a regular to help him get to 3,000 hits, feeling the obligation to a lifelong Astro and fan favorite even after his skills no longer warranted such consistent at-bats.

If Cano does not do a Fisk or a Yaz or a Winfield, what allegiance protects him in the everyday lineup?

The Mets as an organization do not have ties to Cano, who has 2,570 hits, to want to help him toward the 3,000 milestone (beyond wanting to put fans in the stands perhaps for the chase). His Cooperstown case is clouded due to a 2018 suspension after testing positive for a banned substance. But the Mets general manager and manager certainly have a stake in the second baseman that the team and history do not.

Cano and Edwin Diaz represent Brodie Van Wagenen’s biggest move and gamble as GM, acquiring the duo that performed poorly in 2019 for mainly Jarred Kelenic, who has emerged as an elite prospect with the Mariners. In Cano, Luis Rojas had a powerful advocate for his rise to manager. Rojas hit Cano third in both Subway spring games over the weekend and the suspicion is that is where he will bat Friday vs. Atlanta’s Mike Soroka in the regular season opener.

The Mets, though, are in a must-win situation. No one should feel that more than the GM and manager, since there will almost certainly be a new owner after this season. There may be no job protection. Winning, though, would sure help.

So how long do Van Wagenen/Rojas stick with Cano in the three hole if he is more Kinsler/Biggio? And do they just stick with Cano in the lineup if his at-bats would be better served going elsewhere?

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If Jed Lowrie were ever healthy enough to play that would become a more substantial question. Still, even if Lowrie never makes it back, does the best Met overall lineup have J.D. Davis at third, Jeff McNeil at second, Yoenis Cespedes DHing and Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto flanking Jake Marisnick in the outfield? It all becomes easier if Cano returns to career norms and does not put Van Wagenen and Rojas on the spot.

Still, what the Mets face with Cano is not uncommon. Teams are always having to assess if the bad year by a thirty-something veteran was a bad year or the beginning of the end? Managers will tell you transitioning that kind of player out of a regular role is among the most difficult assignments they face, especially if there are strong ties between manager and player and/or player and team.

Think about Joe Girardi having to strip Jorge Posada of his daily catching responsibilities over the 2010-11 seasons. By 2012, Girardi was making the transition away from Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira to a younger, better choice for hitting third. That was Robinson Cano.

There is a circle of life to the game.

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