#Route to roster balance very different in this fantasy baseball season
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“#Route to roster balance very different in this fantasy baseball season”
Finding balance will be the key to a successful 2020 fantasy season. The strategies (and rankings) that worked for a 162-game schedule will not work for a 60-game slate. Adjustments must be made. Loading up on quality, well-rounded offensive players early and often is key, as pitchers (even the top-tier hurlers) pose greater risk.
So let’s talk about trying to balance your roster with a player like Trevor Story as a potential top-10 pick.
Story has hit .276 while averaging 32 homers, 92 RBIs, 89 runs, 19 stolen bases and a .871 OPS over the past three seasons — numbers worthy of being a top fantasy option despite striking out in 29.1 percent of his career at-bats.
There is another side to this Story, as he is one of the many Rockies who takes advantage of his environment. Though he is a .301 hitter with a .998 OPS in the friendly confines of Coors Field, he is a .250 hitter with a .756 OPS outside of Colorado.
This is concerning when it comes to the idea of balancing a roster, because 15 of Rockies’ 30 road games come against the Dodgers (six games), who had the top-ranked pitching staff last year; the A’s (two games), who had the sixth-best pitching staff last season; and the Diamondbacks (seven games), who added Madison Bumgarner to the 12th-best pitching staff of 2019.
Story also plays four games at AT&T Park in San Francisco, where he is a .254 hitter with .664 OPS in 32 games, and two home games against Houston, the third-best staff a year ago and a team he has hit .226 against in eight career games.
Story has a 10.88 average draft position, according to Fantasy Alarm, which makes him a late first-round pick. When you have a top-10 player hitting 50 points lower on the road, it becomes a risky investment over a shorter season.
This is not a knock on Story, as Roto Rage believes he would be a top-10 pick over a 162-game slate, in which he would have time to make up for the bad days or weeks. In a 60-game schedule, there is little room for error.
That’s why Roto Rage would rather invest in Washington’s Juan Soto (11.33 ADP) or Trea Turner (12.65), or Houston’s Alex Bregman (14.20).
If you fear Story is your last chance to grab a top shortstop, you’re wrong. It is a loaded position. Youngsters like Fernando Tatis Jr. (19.30) or Gleyber Torres (29.40) will be there a round or two later, and Bo Bichette (67.77) or Marcus Semien (86.77) will be available a few rounds after that. You can even wait until the mid-to-late rounds and find players like Carlos Correa (109.70), Amed Rosario (165.37) or Kevin Newman (211.19), who hit .308 while smacking 12 homers and stealing 16 bases last season.
If you’re afraid of losing Story’s power, you can make up for that in the late rounds with players like C.J. Cron (249.29) or Renato Nunez (255.68).
If you’re afraid of losing stolen bases, late-round speed can be found with Kolten Wong (228.11) or John Berti (253.16).
You can even find a little of everything (average, power, steals, runs) with a versatile player like Tommy Edman (144.25) in the middle rounds or a steady veteran like Shin-Soo Choo (229.12) much later.
This is not about drafting stars, it’s about drafting a balanced roster.
As Mr. Miyagi said, “Better learn balance. Balance is key. Balance good, karate good. Everything good. Balance bad, better pack up, go home. Understand?”
Here are some other players to avoid in the abbreviated MLB season:
No one should be desperate enough for stolen bases to draft Adalberto Mondesi at his current ADP (48.67). He is a one-trick pony who over his career has struck out in 29.6 percent of his at-bats. Despite having the second-most stolen bases in the majors last year, he is a career .249 hitter who offers little power, and his .291 on-base percentage was the 11th-worst in the league among players with 400 plate appearances (his 4.3 walk percentage was the 12th lowest, too). Avoid like the plague.
Paul Goldschmidt (66.84) finished last season with 34 homers, 97 RBIs and 97 runs scored, but he also had his lowest average (.260), on-base percentage (.346), slugging percentage (.346), OPS (.821) and swinging strike rate (11.1) since 2011, his rookie season. It also is safe to say the days of Goldschmidt reaching double-digit stolen bases are well behind him, after stealing just three bags in 2019 and seven in 2018.
Though Houston’s five-tool stud Kyle Tucker (186.70) and the Angels’ Jo Adell (233.41) were prospects expected to make an impact this season, it may be tough for them to get enough playing time to do anything of note in 60 games. They remain in play, however, if you’re in a dynasty league, as you should have your roster in good shape by the time they’re selected.
The Rangers’ Rougned Odor (228.97) is normally a great late-round source of power and speed, but his batting average in this kind of setting will kill any potential value he may have.
Fantasy middle infield rankings
Second base
1. Jonathan Villar, MIA
2. Keston Hiura, MIL
3. Ozzie Albies, ATL
4. Jose Altuve, HOU
5. Whit Merrifield, KC
6. Ketel Martie, ARI
7. Gleyber Torres, NYY
8. Jeff McNeil, NYM
9. Tommy Edman, STL
10. Kolten Wong, STL
11. Yoan Moncada, CWS
12. Eduardo Escobar, ARI
13. Mike Moustakas, CIN
14. Cavan Biggio, TOR
15. Cesar Hernandez, CLE
16. Max Muncy, LAD
17. DJ LeMahieu, NYY
18. Howie Kendrick, WAS
19. Kevin Newman, PIT
20. Starlin Castro, WAS
21. Brandon Lowe, TB
22. Luis Arraez, MIN
23. Garrett Hampson, COL
24. Tommy La Stella, LAA
25. Jonathan Schoop, DET
26. Gavin Lux, LAD
27. Chris Taylor, LAD
28. Ryan McMahon, COL
29. Nick Madrigal, CWS
30. Rougned Odor, TEX
Shortstop
1. Francisco Lindor, CLE
2. Trea Turner, WAS
3. Alex Bregman, HOU
4. Trevor Story, COL
5. Fernando Tatis Jr., SD
6. Gleyber Torres, NYY
7. Javier Baez, CHC
8. Xander Bogaerts, BOS
9. Ketel Marte, ARI
10. Jonathan Villar, MIA
11. Bo Bichette, TOR
12. Manny Machado, SD
13. Marcus Semien, OAK
14. Carlos Correa, HOU
15. Adalberto Mondesi, KC
16. Corey Seager, LAD
17. Eduardo Escobar, ARI
18. Tim Anderson, CWS
19. Amed Rosario, NYM
20. Jorge Polanco, MIN
21. Elvis Andrus, TEX
22. Gavin Lux, LAD
23. Jean Segura, PHI
24. Didi Gregorius, PHI
25. Garrett Hampson, COL
26. Scott Kingery, PHI
27. Paul DeJong, STL
28. Kevin Newman, PIT
29. John Berti, MIA
30. Dansby Swanson, ATL
Team Name of the week
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