With his win at TPC Twin Cities, Tony Finau became only the third player to win a tournament this year as a consensus favorite.

Now, the tour heads from Minnesota to Michigan for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the penultimate PGA Tour event before the FedEx Cup playoffs start. Finau (+1400) arrives as the second-favorite on the betting board this week behind consensus favorite Patrick Cantlay (+1000).

Rounding out the top five on the odds board are Will Zalatoris (+1600), Open Championship runner-up Cameron Young (+2000) and Max Homa (+2500). Before we share any bets, though, we’ll begin, as always, with our statistical modeling strategy for the event.

This week, I’ve settled on six key stats (at least 10 percent emphasis) to pair with five supporting statistics that *should* inform success at the Detroit Golf Club. Without any further hesitation, let’s dive into the model.

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Rocket Mortgage Classic golf odds, projections

Stat #1 – Good Drives Gained (15 percent emphasis)

The fairways at Detroit Golf Club aren’t what you would describe as “narrow,” but placement off the tee is still somewhat important.

The data on winners here is a little flawed because of a win by a generally inaccurate Bryson DeChambeau, but top-five finishers at this event are gaining almost 0.7 fairways on the field at this event. Meanwhile, top-10 finishers are gaining about 0.56 fairways on the field. For context, winners have gained 0.25 fairways per round.

Although this particular stat hasn’t proved extremely correlative in past events — only half of last year’s top-10 in good drives gained finished 20th or better — it carries more weight than that indication. The course plays relatively short for a par-72, so consistently finding the fairway will allow players to produce more creative approaches.

Here are the leaders in good drives gained over the last 24 rounds:

1. Brendon Todd
2. Ryan Armour
3. Brendan Steele
4. Emiliano Grillo
5. Doug Ghim

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Stat #2 – Strokes-Gained: Approach (15 percent emphasis)

Correlative Stats – Proximity: 100-125 yards (5 percent emphasis), Proximity: 125-150 yards (5 percent emphasis)

Approach play is essential this week but carries less weight than in other PGA Tour events.

Per datagolf.com, SG: Approach carries a 60 percent correlation with finishing position at Detroit Golf Club. At the average PGA Tour stop, that percentage rises to 70 percent. At last year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, six of the top-10 in SG: Approach finished T-20th or better while only three finished T-10th or better.

It does get (somewhat) standard emphasis because the greens at this Donald Ross design are smaller than the tour average (approx. 5100 square feet vs. 6600 for the tour average).

But you also need to counter-balance that fact with the assumption players won’t face many lengthy approaches. Although the course measures north of 7,300 yards total, a big chunk of that yardage comes from a 635-yard Par 5. All told, the 10 Par 4’s at Detroit Golf Club measure only 4,284 yards, including four that fall between 350-400 yards.

Here are the leaders in SG: Approach over the last 24 qualifying rounds:

1. Scott Stallings
2. Mark Hubbard
3. Davis Riley
4. Brendan Steele
5. Lee Hodges

Stat #3 – Greens in Regulation Gained (10 percent emphasis)

Correlated Stat – Sand Saves (5 percent emphasis)

Historically, there’s a strong correlation between success at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and hitting a plethora of greens.

Last year, six of the top-10 in GIRs gained ultimately finished T-14th or better. Of the top 10 in GIRs gained each of the last three years, 19 finished inside the top 25.

Plus, this measure has a massive jump from top-5 finishers to winners. Generally, those who finish in the top five gained about 0.77 greens on the field, while winners gained almost 1.13 greens on the field. Further, two of the last three winners at this event placed 14th or better in the field for the week in GIRs gained.

As for the correlative stat, Detroit Golf Club features a number of bunkers that can trap players. All told, there are 82 traps at the Ross design — 39 of which are greenside — so players will need to demonstrate comfort from those situations in the event they miss the green.

Here are the leaders in GIRs gained over the last 24 qualifying rounds:

1. Lee Hodges
2. Brendan Steele
3. Taylor Pendrith
4. Will Zalatoris
5. Tony Finau

Stat #4 – Birdies or Better Gained (15 percent emphasis)

Correlated Stats: Putting – 5 to 10 feet (5 percent emphasis), Putting – 10 to 15 feet (5 percent emphasis)

Historically, this event has proven one of the lowest-scoring events on the PGA Tour, making birdies an absolute must.

Two of the last three winners here have reached -23 for the week, while all three have reached at least -18 across all four days. The cut line has ranged from -2 to -4 after Friday, which is markedly low for a PGA Tour event.

That’s why BoB gained gets a touch more emphasis for this event, especially when you factor in the (somewhat obvious) correlation. Last year, all of the top five in this category finished T-10th or better. In 2020, four of the top five in this metric grabbed a top-10 finish.

Bottom line: there aren’t many challenging holes at this track, so anyone lacking in the birdie department has zero chance of contending here.

Here are the top-five in birdies or better gained over the last 24 rounds:

1. Cameron Young
2. Tony Finau
3. Will Zalatoris
4. Adam Svensson
5. Patrick Cantlay

Stats #5 & #6 – SG: Par 5’s (10 percent emphasis) & SG: Par 4’s – 350 to 400 yards (10 percent emphasis)

As mentioned earlier, one of the par 5’s at DGC stretches to 635 yards, but that group of four holes remains incredibly easy.

The four par 5’s comprise the four most accessible holes at the Ross design, with all surrendering either a birdie or eagle on 28 percent of hole attempts. Players have made birdie or better on at least 44.7 percent of hole attempts at the two easiest holes- numbers seven and seventeen- at least.

That makes those four holes crucial for success this week, a statement supported by the fact four of the top-five in Par 5 Efficiency last year finished T-25th or better.

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However, another group of four holes gives players scoring opportunities. These are the four par 4’s — numbers one, three, eight, and thirteen — that measure between 350 and 400 yards on the scorecard. These holes give an advantage to both bombers, and shorter hitters alike, and all have surrendered a historical birdie rate of at least 20 percent.

All told, seven of these eight total holes rank amongst the nine easiest on the course. Thus, players with a positive historical track record on these holes should fit this track well.

Here are the leaders in each category over the last 24 rounds:

SG: Par 5’s

1. Sahith Theegala
2. Patrick Cantlay
3. Michael Gligic
4. Emiliano Grillo
5. Max Homa

SG: Par 4’s – 350 to 400 yards

1. Cameron Davis
2. Brendon Todd
3. Davis Riley
4. Chase Seiffert
5. Taylor Moore