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#Byron Buxton not worth risk

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“Byron Buxton not worth risk”

When the words “upside” or “potential” are thrown around in the fantasy world, one generally thinks of the 20-year-old prospect on the cusp of breaking into the majors.

You don’t immediately think of the 28-year-old who was the No. 2-overall pick in 2012. That, however, is where we still seem to be with Minnesota’s Byron Buxton: dreaming about what could (or should) be.

Roto Rage doesn’t need to sell you on Buxton’s ability — he’s a first-round talent with all the tools to help you win your fantasy league. That was evident in the way Buxton finished the 2021 season. Over his final 26 games, he hit .314 with nine homers, 13 RBIs, 27 runs, four steals and a 1.061 OPS. He finished the season with the second-lowest strikeout percentage (24.4) of his career, as well as career-best marks in average (.306), homers (19) and OPS (1.005) in just 61 games.

And therein lies the problem.

Buxton’s numbers always have to be justified by how well he did in a certain number of games (usually a relatively small number, like 61). We’re always talking about the “what ifs,” his “upside” or his immense talent, but none of that wins fantasy titles.

With an average draft position of 62.02, according to Fantasy Alarm, Buxton is being drafted as a top-20 outfielder. That’s a big price for a player who has played in more than 100 games in a season just once (2017).

Not including 2015 (when he got his first taste of the bigs over 46 games and hit .209 with a .576 OPS) or the COVID-shortened 2020 season (when he hit .254 with 13 homers and a .844 OPS in 39 games), Buxton has played in 408 games (81.6 per season) in the other five years and averaged 297 plate appearances.

Sorry, that’s not enough to justify the price tag.

Expecting the speedy Buxton to play a full season is like expecting your dog to respond with anything other than a bark or puppy-dog eyes when asked why they peed on your rug. Expecting his season to look anything like his 162-game projections from 2019-21, according to Baseball Reference (.277, 36 HRs, 91 RBIs, 22 SBs, 101 runs, .897 OPS), is a pipe dream.

So, can you justify using a fifth- or sixth-round pick on a player who might play half of Minnesota’s games? Not when you have the potential of St. Louis’ Tyler O’Neill (61.12) or the White Sox’s Eloy Jimenez (60.14) being available in the same spot. Not when you can wait three rounds to snag Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds (94.36), who has played in 134 or more games (and hit over .300) in his two non-COVID seasons, or bounce-back candidates in the form of two former MVPs — Christian Yelich (93.36) and Cody Bellinger (96.48).

Not when you can ensure your roster doesn’t have holes elsewhere by taking a top-10 shortstop, such as new Tiger Javier Baez (67) or new Ranger Corey Seager (67.96), or bolstering your rotation with a top-20 starting pitcher, such as Jack Flaherty (70.2) or Jose Berrios (72.68).

Minnesota might have invested seven years and $100 million in Buxton this offseason, but unless they secretly agreed to use some of that money to help Buxton undergo surgery that would make him half-man, half-machine (a la RoboCop or Cyborg), you’re still dealing with the same injury-prone player who has been burning fantasy owners since 2016.

Buxton’s talent is tantalizing, but he is the poster boy for high-risk fantasy options. Though the reward could be huge, Roto Rage is steering clear until he proves he can stay healthy.

Team Name of the Week

Triston the Night Away

Outfielders

Fernando Tatis Jr., SD
Juan Soto, Was
Ronald Acuna Jr., Atl
Bryce Harper, Phi
Kyle Tucker, Hou
Mookie Betts, LAD
Mike Trout, LAA
Aaron Judge, NYY
Luis Robert, CWS
Yordan Alvarez, Hou
Teoscar Hernandez, Tor
Starling Marte, NYM
Cedric Mullins, Bal
George Springer, Tor
Eloy Jimenez, CWS
Tyler O’Neill, StL
Nick Castellanos, FA
Whit Merrifield,KC
Randy Arozarena, TB
Byron Buxton, Min
Ketel Marte,Ari
Bryan Reynolds, Pit
J.D. Martinez, Bos
Brandon Lowe., TB
Cody Bellinger, LAD
Jesse Winker, Cin
Christian Yelich, Mil
Giancarlo Stanton, NYY
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Tor
Kris Bryant, FA
Mitch Haniger, Sea
Ryan Mountcastle, Bal
Jared Walsh=LAA
Trent Grisham=SD
Franmil Reyes, Cle
Tommy Edman, StL
Kyle Schwarber, FA
Austin Meadows ,TB
Jarred Kelenic, Sea
Josh Bell, Was
Alex Verdugo, Bos
Chris Taylor, LAD
Michael Conforto, FA
Avisail Garcia, Mia
Hunter Renfroe, Mil
Andrew Benintendi, KC
Joey Gallo, NYY
Ramon Laureano, Oak
Adolis Garcia, Tex
Alex Kirilloff, Min
Jorge Soler, FA
Dylan Carlson, StL
Austin Hays, Bal
Michael Brantley, Hou
Eddie Rosario, FA
Robbie Grossman, Det
Charlie Blackmon, Col
Ian Happ, ChC
Adam Duvall, Atl
Raimel Tapia, Col
Akil Baddoo, Det
AJ Pollock, LAD
Daulton Varsho, Ari
Jo Adell, LAA
Andrew Vaughn, CWS
Mark Canha, NYM
Tommy Pham, FA
Myles Straw, Cle
Marcell Ozuna, Atl
Anthony Santander, Bal
Harrison Bader, StL
Gavin Lux, LAD
Wil Myers, SD
Kiké Hernandez, Bos
Max Kepler, Min
Amed Rosario, Cle
Mike Yastrzemski, SF
Kyle Lewis, Sea
Brandon Nimmo, NYM
Jeff McNeil, NYM
Garrett Hampson, Col
Adam Frazier, Sea
Randal Grichuk, Tor
Jesus Sanchez, Mia
Tyler Naquin, Cin
David Peralta, Ari
Manuel Margot, TB
Josh Rojas, Ari
Patrick Wisdom, ChC
Joc Pederson, FA
Andrew McCutchen, FA
Cavan Biggio, Tor
Lorenzo Cain, Mil
Lane Thomas, Was
Luis Arraez, Min
Connor Joe, Col
Rafael Ortega, ChC
Dominic Smith, NYM
LaMonte Wade Jr., SF
Vidal Brujan, TB
Garrett Cooper, Mia
Willie Calhoun, Tex
Pavin Smith, Ari
Jarren Duran, Bos
Nick Senzel, Cin
Victor Robles, Was
Brandon Marsh, LAA
Ben Gamel, Pit
Yoshi Tsutsugo, Pit
Harold Ramirez, ChC
Michael A. Taylor, KC
Hunter Dozier, KC
Kole Calhoun, Tex
Gavin Sheets, CWS
Sam Hilliard, Col
Aaron Hicks, NYY
Julio Rodriguez, Sea
Kyle Isbel, KC
Bryan De La Cruz, Mia
Dylan Moore, Sea

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