#A break down of what’s going on in Vladimir Putin’s head

William Hague is the former Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs of the United Kingdom. In The Times of London, he writes: Since I’ve written about my encounters with Vladimir Putin, many people have asked me for reassurance about what he will do: that surely, he is rational, that he understands the cost — in Russian lives and severe sanctions — of starting a war. Yes, he is rational. But this is what he may be thinking: 

No one should be surprised. I wrote everything down in July last year for the whole world to read. Why do they think I wrote a 5,000-word essay titled “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” — that I am becoming an academic or training in journalism? 

It is what I think about every waking hour, and I spelt it out: “Russians and Ukrainians are one people — a single whole.” The situation in Ukraine today, I argued “involves a forced change of identity” comparable to “the use of weapons of mass destruction against us.”

Historians might dispute my view that Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians are all descendants of Ancient Rus, back in the 10th century. But these people can only write about history; I am about to make history. The Bolsheviks robbed Russia when they handed Crimea to Ukraine. I have already corrected that. Now I have the chance to complete the task of forging one people.

Now is the time

Why now? I could not do it earlier. I need the West in retreat, and China watching my back. Both have now obliged. And I cannot leave it until later. I am nearly 70, and I am not embarking on this at 80. Any successor — although I’m not choosing one for a long time — will lack my ability to outmaneuver the West.

Besides, the Ukrainians are getting more and more ambitious about “freedom.” And those bungling fools who have run Belarus and Kazakhstan have been losing control — taking over Ukraine will show them all who is the boss. The only question has been how to do it.

I can give the order any day now, and then it is about 48 hours to the action. I keep reading that we will attack them on three sides, but of course there is a fourth side — inside. The gangs inside Ukraine will be invited to cause havoc, in the same way they helped us in Odessa in 2014.

In the West, they have not understood how organized crime can be an extension of the state, but we have perfected that already with cyberattacks. And my agents will visit the Ukrainian oligarchs and make clear the choice they face. When they have to choose between billions of dollars in contracts or liquidation they are usually, let us say, impressionable.

The Ukrainians can be brave and there is a risk that they will fight well. Within the first hours, therefore, they will be isolated by air, land and sea. All communications will be down, except to hear that their leaders have fled, their soldiers are surrendering and the world has abandoned them. Towns that hold out will have no food or power. Let us see how long people resist with no heating in the winter and no hope of victory or rescue. So sad, when their side will have started it.

The British and the Americans have been highly irritating with their release of intelligence on the pretexts we might have for an invasion. But be in no doubt, it will be Ukrainians who will fire first, even if they are already dead at the time.

The West divided

I am still, for a few more hours, open to negotiation. But that has to mean the total neutralization of Ukraine so that it can be re-absorbed more gradually.

The visitors to Moscow from Western capitals have had a big problem — if they stick with the Americans, we ask them why they bothered coming. Sergei Lavrov is good at that. But if they discuss ideas of their own, like Macron, they divide the West. It is a problem with democracy that the leaders have to look like they are achieving something even when they’re not. I prefer to hold still while I’m actually doing something. It is so much more intimidating. And then there will be the trial of strength. The West will be stunned by the speed and scale of the military action, but they will react with outrage, sanctions and the freezing of relations. But we have moved most of our assets, and when the fuss is over the map of the world will have changed.

The UN will do nothing. Ukraine will be returned to “partnership with Russia,” as I delicately put it in my essay. It will take time to turn Ukrainians back into Russians, but we have been doing that for a thousand years and we are getting very good at it.

How long will the West hold together? It will be more a crisis for them than for me. No one can freeze out Russia. There is no way of pursuing nuclear arms control without us, or passing any UN resolutions, or getting enough gas. The EU is only as strong as its weakest links; why does anyone think I have spent so much attention on the Hungarians and others? 

Western Europeans are dependent for defense on America, for energy on Russia and for trade on China, while fantasizing about “autonomy.” They think power comes from being interdependent but setting the rules for everyone. I think it comes from making others dependent and following my own rules. They think like traders; I think like an intelligence officer.

A new world order

Then there are the Americans. Trump will soon be back in the game, confusing them again. He will want deals with Russia. Their unity will not hold. They read hundreds of millions of items on social media that make them hate each other, many of which were written in Russia. Sometimes I have to laugh. What is the point of physical strength if you leave your mind open to hostile influence? But that’s my KGB training again.

This conquest will be the beginning of the post-Western order. Ukrainians will join Syrians and Afghans on the list of people the West has abandoned and betrayed. Their credibility will be at an end. And if you are in Georgia, Moldova, the Balkans or the Middle East, you are going to think twice before defying Uncle Vladimir.

This is my best guess at Putin’s rationality — devoid of concern for loss of life, human rights and the peaceful settlement of disputes, but that is consistent with his record. The visit of the German chancellor to Moscow may be the last chance to persuade Putin that the West is stronger than he thinks. 

Whatever happens, we will have to focus on how to protect democracy inside and out, in a world where social media, crime, corruption, cyberspace and new alliances are being weaponized against it.