On the heels of Cam Smith’s victory at the Players Championship, the PGA Tour continues its Florida swing by heading to Tampa.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club is the setting for the Valspar Championship. Despite a late finish at TPC Sawgrass, the tournament still features five top-ten players.

Justin Thomas and Viktor Hovland (+900) arrive in Tampa as consensus co-favorites for the event, while Collin Morikawa (+1200), Xander Schauffele (+1600) and Louis Oosthuizen (+1600) aren’t far behind.

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While I won’t be targeting any outrights in this week’s event, I still see plenty of value to be had on the board. So without further ado, here are my best bets for the Valspar Championship:

Best Bet #1 – Russell Knox Top 40 (+100), DraftKings Sportsbook

Knox is coming off a strong performance at the Players, posting a T6 finish thanks to a final round 70.

Combine that with a good course history at this event and I believe you’re getting a steal with this price. The Scot has two consecutive top-25 finishes at the Copperhead course and, in constructing my model for this week, does a lot of things well that inform success here.

One big factor at the Valspar Championship that informs success is an ability to go low on the par 5s and Knox does that quite well. Over the last 50 rounds, he ranks 21st in strokes-gained on par 5s. Plus, over his last two appearances at the Valspar, he’s combined to shoot 14-under on the four Par 5s.

Another factor placing Knox relatively high in my model is his ability to score on Par 4’s between 400 and 450 yards. Those holes will comprise nearly 28 percent of all 72 holes this week and Knox arrives second in my model in terms of his ability to score on those holes. Plus, given three of the five holes are within the nine easiest holes historically on the course, expect Knox to take advantage.

Overall, Knox enters the Valspar fifth in my model, so I believe there’s plenty of wiggle room for a top-40 play and will happily take this number at plus-money.

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Best Bet #2 – Matthew Fitzpatrick Top 20 (+150), Fanduel Sportsbook

There’s one element of my model that disagrees with Fitzpatrick — he’s 106th in proximity to the hole between 175 and 200 yards — but there are other encouraging signs.

Fitzpatrick ranks first overall in the field in the aforementioned SG: Par 5s metric and 12th overall in Par 4 scoring between 400 and 450 yards. Additionally, he posted strong metrics at the players in key scoring categories — the Englishman gained strokes on the field in both tee-to-green and approach — and played the par 5s in three-under at Sawgrass despite missing the cut.

Fitzpatrick doesn’t have any course history to go off of for the Valspar Championship, but he does have a strong run of results entering this event. Prior to his MC at the Players, he posted four straight top-12 finishes, two of which were ninth or better.

Further, Fitzpatrick has success at the strongest correlated course for this event. Per datagolf.com, the course with the strongest correlations to the Copperhead Course is the Concession Golf Club. At the WGC-Workday at Concession last season, Fitzpatrick posted a solo 11th.

Lastly, this also may be nothing, but it’s worth noting Fitzpatrick loves playing in the state of Florida. Across his last six events in the state, he’s posted a top-20 finish in five. If he continues that strong record on the par 5s, expect a good bounce-back performance from the Brit.

Best Bet #3 – Justin Thomas Top 10 (+135), Fanduel Sportsbook

Across his last 36 rounds, Thomas shows up first in my model and is top-two in three of five measured categories.

JT shows up first in SG: T2G and opportunities gained while ranking second behind Fitzpatrick in the SG: Par 5s metric. Plus, even though he posted a T33 at TPC Sawgrass, I’m encouraged by the fact Thomas gained nearly five strokes on the field in the tee-to-green category while simultaneously gaining north of two strokes on the field off-the-tee and in approach.

Prior to that finish, Thomas posted two consecutive top-10s at the Genesis Invitational and the Phoenix Open. There’s also good recent history to consider at the Valspar, where he posted a solo 13th in 2021, gaining north of 13 strokes on the field tee-to-green.

The flat stick let Thomas down that week as he dropped north of six strokes on the field putting, per fantasynational.com, but every other metric was solid.

If Thomas can produce average putting metrics this weekend, I expect his ball-striking will prime the American for his third top-10 in his last four events.