#MLB prop bets: Best odds for MVPs, home run and strikeout leaders

By Jason Weingarten, VSiN

It was a long and rocky road to get MLB up and running, but here we are. And with a 60-game regular season, we might as well try to make the best of it. After scouring the market for the most favorable odds, here’s my first round of player prop bets for the Summer of 2020:

NL MVP

Bryce Harper 20/1 at BetMGM

Ronald Acuna Jr. is listed between 6/1 and 9/1, and Juan Soto is 9/1 to 11/1, depending on where you look. Bryce Harper is 13/1 to 20/1. Harper didn’t make the All-Star team last season, his first with the Phillies, but still put up very respectable numbers, including 35 home runs and 114 RBIs. He can carry a team for 60 games and already has one MVP, so I took a shot 20/1.

AL MVP

Shohei Ohtani 35/1 at BetMGM

Wide range of lines available here. FanDuel has Ohtani 19/1, DraftKings offers 30/1 and BetMGM has the best number at 35/1. The reasoning behind this bet is fairly simple: Nobody is more valuable than a guy whose fastball sits at 97 mph with over a strikeout per inning, and when he’s not pitching once a week he’s starting at DH and hitting home runs. The downside is he has Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon as teammates, and it will be hard for Ohtani or anyone to leapfrog Trout in the MVP voting if Trout doesn’t sit out.

Home runs leader

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 50/1 at DraftKings

Last year, I bet heavily against Guerrero as AL Rookie of the Year. I believed he was not worthy of starting the year a -200 or -300 favorite, with the early numbers getting as high as -500 when he finally got called up. Now with a year of experience and the outside possibility of the Blue Jays playing their home games in Florida, I’m going to start the year with Guerrero 50/1. He is batting cleanup and will have opportunities to pad his home run stats against the Orioles and Marlins and will visit home run-favorable ballparks in Atlanta and New York.

Hits leader

Ozzie Albies 22/1 at FanDuel and Fernando Tatis Jr. 33/1 at FanDuel (half unit each)

For hits leader, I am looking for someone who is batting at the top of the order and is not expected to miss many, if any, games. Two players stand out for me. Albies is batting second in Atlanta, while Tatis should lead off every day for the Padres. Neither should need many rest days. Tatis, whose odds have ticked up to 34/1, just needs to cut down on the strikeouts a bit. Twenty to 25 players could contend in this market, and I wouldn’t fault anybody who wanted to bet Xander Bogaerts or Jean Segura or even Juan Soto at similar odds. This was the hardest market to narrow down.

Strikeouts leader (both leagues)

Max Scherzer 6/1 at FanDuel

Scherzer’s odds have dropped a bit to 440, but he is still the second favorite behind Gerrit Cole (5/2). Cole wouldn’t be the first Yankees free agent to start slowly, and in a 60-game season, one or two bad starts might be enough for someone to jump in front of him. I think the short season and extra rest helps the Nationals’ pitchers after a long postseason and a seven-game World Series. Scherzer is my pick to lead the NL in innings pitched and should be near the top in strikeouts.

AL strikeouts leader

Lucas Giolito 10/1 at BetMGM

While most books are combining the leagues for their strikeouts market, BetMGM lists the AL and NL separately, and we thank them for that. Giolito is the fourth favorite at 10/1, trailing only Shane Bieber, Justin Verlander and Cole. Last year, Cole struck out 39.9 percent of the batters he faced, compared with 30.1 percent for Bieber, 35.4 percent for Verlander and 32.3 percent for Giolito. For both strikeouts bets, I’m hoping the favorites falter a bit early.