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On Tuesday, voters get to speak and be counted.

Midterm candidates’ voices are raspy and ragged from round-the-clock rallies and speeches. They’ve uttered final jabs and jeers, looked backward and ahead and run out of ways to be heard by the tiny fraction of undecided citizens who need a nudge to turn out. 

Big-name surrogates — pulled onstage by Democrats in the final hours of key contests in which plenty of voters say they want change rather than more of the same — switched from boasts about accomplishments to ominous warnings that the GOP’s vision is risky business.

Former President Clinton, at a rally in Brooklyn to support vulnerable New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), said Republican candidates have seized on inflation and crime and told voters, “I want you to be scared. And I want you to be mad. And the last thing I want you to do is think.”

Republicans, in turn, said over the weekend that political change can’t come soon enough. “These people don’t just need to lose. They need to lose by a lot. They need to get the message,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) told a rally in Miami (The New York Times). 

Former President Trump, an in-demand surrogate, and Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, seeking reelection, appeared separately in the Sunshine State, underscoring their rivalry as the governor is increasingly viewed as a potential White House contender. On Saturday during a Pennsylvania rally, Trump called the governor “Ron DeSanctimonious” (NY Post). The former president, who is teasing his own presidential campaign plans, will lead a rally for Republicans in Dayton, Ohio, tonight. “Stay tuned,” he told a crowd in Florida on Sunday.

President Biden was in New York on Sunday to try to help Hochul, who faces a fierce challenge from Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin of New York. During a half-hour pitch for the governor Sunday night at Sarah Lawrence College, Biden said Zeldin “talks a good game on crime,” but “it’s all talk” (The New York Times).

“Kathy’s opponent is siding with the NRA,” Biden said, referring to the National Rifle Association.

The president today will be in Maryland to stump for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wes Moore.

▪ The Washington Post: Here are some of Biden’s recent errors of fact during campaign appearances. The Fact Checker issued a “bottomless Pinocchio.”

▪ The Washington Post: Trump’s speeches use dozens of lies, exaggerations to draw contrasts with Biden.

From Washington state to Pennsylvania and from Nevada to Georgia, the suspense over Senate contests is described as high-stakes and white-knuckle. “Dead heat,” is how FiveThirtyEight charted the Senate races as of Sunday.

Republicans insist they are confident they’ll control the House next year. And judging from polling and anxious Democratic attention in districts Biden won just two years ago, GOP optimism appears well-placed.

Republicans hold significant advantages when it comes to the economy and inflation, which are central concerns during this fall’s contests. GOP candidates appear poised to claim a majority in the House, where they need a net gain of five seats, according to responses in a Washington Post-ABC News poll of registered and likely voters released on Sunday (The Washington Post).

While Democrats have pulled even with Republicans in enthusiasm, Biden remains unpopular and voters express deep dissatisfaction about the state of the country, according to the final national NBC News poll of the 2022 midterms. Forty-eight percent of likely voters said they prefer Congress under Democrats’ control next year while 47 percent said they prefer a Republican-controlled Congress (NBC News). 

In some battleground state races, analysts have been asked if ticket-splitting could play an impactful role this year. The Hill’s Max Greenwood reports that the answer is yes. In Pennsylvania and Georgia there are suggestions that voters may be willing to cross party lines to support or oppose some candidates. 

One fact already notched in history books: There has been record early voting in the 2022 midterms, exceeding 2018. More than 40 million ballots have been cast as of Sunday afternoon, according to the United States Election Project.

▪ The Hill: Here is when voting locations close in every state on Tuesday.

▪ Nexstar explainer: What happens to voters’ ballots after Election Day?

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Related Articles

▪ The Hill, CNN, The New York Times: Possible indictment by the Justice Department of former President Trump in one or both investigations into Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election and his alleged mishandling of national security documents loom over the midterm elections.

▪ The Hill’s Niall Stanage, who like everyone is eyeing the possibility that Trump may announce his candidacy on Nov. 14, created a ranking of 10 Republicans the columnist sees as most likely to be their party’s next presidential candidate — but not necessarily if Trump jumps in. 

▪ The Hill: Trump, Biden wage a proxy 2024 fight over the midterm elections. 

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LEADING THE DAY

➤ POLITICS & TRENDS TO WATCH

The other big question looming over the midterms is when to expect the election results.

Slow vote counting in many states meant that it took until the Saturday after Election Day before Biden was declared president-elect in 2020. And while experts don’t expect delays of that length this year, it’s still possible that the winners won’t be determined Tuesday night. This is especially true in the Senate, where key states like Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania could take multiple days to count ballots.

Want to find out when results will likely be available in your state? FiveThirtyEight has an interactive state-by-state tool.

Politico: A ripple, a wave or a tsunami? Here’s what to watch on election night.

When results do come in, voters’ and politicians’ responses will put American democracy to the test. Local governments have already put in place barriers and police reinforcements at ballot counting centers, while election officials have prepared social media posts in case of false claims of ballot fraud.

Two years after Trump tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election, the midterms are leaving voters uncertain about their trust in the process. Republican election deniers are running for statewide and local office across the country, and a majority of Trump supporters still believe his false claims of a rigged election.

Their calls for time-intensive hand counts of ballots, scrutiny of balloting and stakeouts of drop boxes, sometimes with firearms in hand, will put a strain on the country’s electoral system on Tuesday and beyond (The Washington Post).

Across the country, experts are seeing a surge of harassment, attacks and violent threats targeting civic and public officials and their families, Time reports. According to analysts and public officials, politically motivated violence today has become alarmingly pervasive, and the fear it causes is upending the political landscape.

“This habit we have of demonizing political opponents, of saying crazy stuff, it creates a dangerous climate,” former President Obama said at a Saturday campaign rally in Pittsburgh. “You’ve got politicians who work not to bring people together but to stir up division and to make us angry and afraid of one another just for their own advantage.”

▪ Politico: Six election security threats to watch for on Election Day.

▪ Reuters: “Kill them”: Arizona election workers face midterm threats.

▪ The Washington Post: This year, GOP election deniers got a free pass from Twitter and Facebook.

▪ The New York Times: Troubled loner? Political terrorist? Both? It’s often hard to say.

In Pennsylvania, voting and civil rights groups are suing to force the counting of undated mail ballots. The Friday lawsuit, filed by the Pennsylvania State Conference of the NAACP, the League of Women Voters of Pennsylvania and other groups seeks to overturn a recent state Supreme Court decision barring the counting of undated mail ballots. Republicans had called that decision a victory (The Philadelphia Inquirer).

Russian trolls and bots are back on social media, just in time for the midterms. The effort to spread disinformation and stoke anger among conservative voters, as well as undermine trust in the electoral system is not new, researchers report, but this year, the effort is more targeted.

Additionally, recent posts also appear intended to undermine the Biden administration’s extensive military assistance to Ukraine (The New York Times).

After 20 years as the No. 2 House Democrat, Rep. Steny Hoyer (Md.) is facing an uncertain future, The Hill’s Mike Lillis reports. The House majority leader has given no sign that he will bow out of party leadership next year, a marked contrast to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who has pledged to do just that.

But with Republicans widely predicted to win control of the House on Tuesday, a younger crop of Democrats is expected to come gunning for new spots in the leadership ranks.

▪ The Hill: Four ways a GOP-led Congress will take on energy, environment.

▪ Politico: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) passes on 2024 presidential run after considering campaign.

➤ ADMINISTRATION

Millions of student loan borrowers find themselves in limbo as challenges to the government’s student loan debt forgiveness plan move through the courts. When will higher education borrowers learn if they’re actually going to receive federal debt forgiveness? The best available answer The Hill gathered from experts is “soon.” The Education Department began taking applications last month for student loan forgiveness and had planned to issue approvals this month. But those actions came to a halt after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit temporarily blocked the measure. Of the multiple court cases across the country, a challenge from six GOP-led states is the only one that has been successful so far in stopping the program, at least for now.

IRS tax breaks are changing for 2022 filings, so read on: There are changes in the child tax credit and Earned Income Tax Credit (Nexstar). There’s also a new 2023 tax reporting mechanism to capture income of at least $600 per year, down from $20,000 per year, for online sales of secondhand and other goods. Such sellers on Etsy, eBay and elsewhere are unhappy (The Hill and CNBC).

Under current rules, individuals who sell goods or services via platforms that use third-party transaction networks such as PayPal generally only receive a tax form if they engage in at least 200 transactions worth an aggregate $20,000 or more. That form, called a 1099-K, also goes to the IRS. Starting in 2023, the federal threshold for issuing the 1099-K will drop to $600 with no minimum transaction level, due to a provision in the recently enacted American Rescue Plan Act. Some states already have lower minimums.

Vox analysis: Republican extremism is endangering the very idea of the professional, disinterested public servant.

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IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤  INTERNATIONAL

The U.S. has privately asked Ukraine to show it is open to negotiations with Russia, The Washington Post reports. Kyiv has publicly refused to engage in peace talks unless Russian President Vladimir Putin is removed from power.

The request by American officials is not aimed at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, the sources told the Post, framing the ask instead as “a calculated attempt to ensure the government in Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come.”

The discussions underscore the complexity of the Biden administration’s position on Ukraine. U.S. officials continue to publicly vow to support Kyiv with aid “for as long as it takes” while also hoping for a resolution to the war that has taken a toll on the world economy and triggered fears of nuclear war over the past eight months.

▪ Yahoo News: Ukrainian troops fire on Russians with captured weapons near key city.

▪ ABC News: Power blackouts across Ukraine amid Russian shelling.

▪ The Hill: Kyiv preparing for total electricity blackout, possible evacuation.

The United Nations climate change conference COP27 is underway in Egypt, bringing together world leaders to once again discuss commitments to mitigate the global climate crisis. The conference, held this year in Sharm el-Sheik through Nov. 18, takes place amid heightened energy production and pricing strains, especially in Europe amid Russia’s war with Ukraine (The Wall Street Journal).

The Hill’s Rachel Frazin reports on four issues to watch during the gathering, which Biden plans to attend on Friday during participation in major international gatherings, including the Group of 20.

At COP27, developing nations have a message for polluters: “pay up” (The New York Times). China and France are among nations issuing that message (Bloomberg News).

North Korea said on Monday that its recent missile launches were simulated strikes on South Korea and the U.S. as the two countries carried out six-day air drills, while Seoul said it had recovered parts of a North Korean missile near its coast (Reuters).

Hardline lawmakers in Iran on Sunday urged the judiciary to “deal decisively” with perpetrators of unrest as the country struggles to suppress the biggest anti-government demonstrations in years. The widespread protests erupted in September after the death of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish Iranian woman who was detained by morality police for alleged improper dress (Reuters).

➤ COURTS

The Supreme Court on Wednesday will hear a dispute over a longstanding federal law that gives preference to Native American families and tribes over non-Native couples when deciding where to place Native children in custody proceedings. Although overshadowed by the court’s more politically charged cases, legal experts say the dispute could prove hugely consequential for Native American rights and tribal sovereignty (The Hill).

The Supreme Court has openings today to weigh whether to restrain the power of federal agencies. Justices will hear oral arguments this morning in Securities and Exchange Commission v. Cochran, which involves the question of whether district courts can hear constitutional challenges to SEC administrative proceedings. Another case to be argued today involves the Federal Trade Commission (Reuters).

▪ NPR: A Supreme Court nursing home case could limit the rights of millions of patients.

▪ The Hill: Obama says “we’d have a very different Supreme Court” if Democrats had kept the Senate in 2014.

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OPINION

■ Donald Trump rallies for … Donald Trump, by The Wall Street Journal editorial board. https://on.wsj.com/3t70w3j

■ Democrats’ long goodbye to the working class, by Ruy Teixeira, contributor, The Atlantic. https://bit.ly/3FPEIRp

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WHERE AND WHEN

👉 YOU’RE INVITED: Have a news query tied to an expert journalist’s insights? The Hill has launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE. 

The House meets at 11:30 a.m. for a pro forma session. Members are scheduled to return to the Capitol on Nov. 14. ​​

The Senate convenes at 10 a.m. for a pro forma session. Senators make their way back to Washington on Nov. 14. 

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 9:30 a.m. He will participate in virtual receptions for the Democratic National Committee at 4 p.m. Biden and first lady Jill Biden will campaign at 7 p.m. for Wes Moore, Democratic candidate for governor in Maryland, during an event at Bowie State University near Columbia, Md. (The Baltimore Sun). The Bidens will return to the White House tonight.

The first lady also headlines a political event at 11:45 a.m. for Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.) in Ashburn, Va. 

Vice President Harris, who is in California, will deliver remarks at a political event at the University of California, Los Angeles 1:10 p.m. PT. Second gentleman Doug Emhoff also will speak. Harris at 2 p.m. PT will be part of a virtual political event for Democrats.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan will speak to the Council on Foreign Relations at 6 p.m. during a virtual newsmaker event. Audio and video of the moderated discussion will be posted on the CFR website. According to The Wall Street Journal, Sullivan has held confidential talks with top Putin aides about the war with Ukraine and Russia’s nuclear threats.

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 1:45 p.m.

⚾ Houston today holds a ticker tape parade at noon for the Houston Astros World Series champions, who beat the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday. Some school students will get the day off (The Houston Chronicle).

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ELSEWHERE

➤  TECH AND EMPLOYERS

Tech billionaire Elon Musk and his Twitter management team,who last week announced layoffs of roughly half the company’s workforce, are now reaching out to dozens of the estimated 3,700 purged employees to ask them to return. Some were laid off by mistake, while others were let go before management realized their work and experience may be necessary to build the new features Musk is planning at the social media platform he leveraged with debt to come up with the $44 billion price tag. Some employees have sued Twitter for failing to give workers 60 days notice of layoffs (Bloomberg News).

Ahead of Election Day, a Twitter manager on Sunday told employees who asked about the new $7.99 per month subscription model for Twitter users who want the status symbol of a verification check mark that “we’ve made the decision to move the launch of this release to Nov. 9, after the election” (The New York Times).

▪ The Hill: Global Twitter verification check marks that platform users pay to obtain will “create a very chaotic environment,” predicted Chris Krebs, former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

▪ Axios: Biden on Friday said Twitter “spews lies.” 

▪ NBC News: Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, who left the company’s board in May, apologized last week after Musk’s team began shrinking Twitter’s workforce.

▪ France 24: The U.N. urges Musk to ensure Twitter respects human rights amid massive layoffs.

▪ Protocol: Musk has offered no remorse about his decision to cut workers but tweeted about the company’s estimated daily revenue losses.

Twitter is not the only tech company cutting staff. According to Crunchbase News, as of late October, more than 52,000 workers in the U.S. tech sector have been laid off in mass job cuts. Big tech companies such as Netflix have slashed jobs this year, with some citing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and others pointing to overhiring during periods of rapid growth. 

Layoffs involve the news media, where companies have shed more than 1,100 jobs in 2022 (Axios). At CNN, employees are bracing for more layoffs under CEO Chris Licht, who this spring discontinued CNN+, the company’s fledgling subscription service (Business Insider).

▪ TechCrunch: The fintech layoffs just keep coming.

▪ The Wall Street Journal and The Hill: Facebook parent Meta is preparing to notify employees of large-scale layoffs this week.

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH 

Deaths caused by alcohol use in the United States spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to data published Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), killing more than 49,000 people in 2020 (CNN).

This marks a 26 percent jump in the death rate between 2019 and 2020, equivalent to roughly how much the mortality rate typically increases in a decade. In 2020, alcohol caused 13 deaths for every 100,000 people, compared to 10.4 deaths per 100,000 people in 2019.

“What’s a word bigger than crisis?” National Association of Addiction Treatment Providers CEO Marvin Ventrell told CNN. “What was already a crisis, has exploded.”

The New York Times: Big Tobacco heralds a healthier world while fighting its arrival.

Pfizer and BioNTech announced Friday that their updated omicron COVID-19 booster shot succeeded in strengthening disease-fighting antibodies, even as questions persist about the vaccine’s continued effectiveness against emerging subvariants of omicron.

“Based on all the data we now have in hand, we have confidence in the bivalent COVID-19 vaccines and their ability to create better protection against COVID-19, including these currently circulating variants, than the original vaccine would have,” Peter Marks, director of the Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, told the Post.

Marks encouraged the public to get booster shots ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

Information about COVID-19 vaccine and booster shot availability can be found at Vaccines.gov.

China recorded its six-month high of COVID-19 cases even as it continues to implement a zero-COVID strategy involving lockdowns, quarantines, frequent testing and a drastic decrease in inbound travel (Reuters).

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,072,594. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 2,504 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)

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THE CLOSER

And finally … 💸 Feeling lucky? This morning brings another drawing for the Powerball jackpot, which climbed over the weekend to $1.9 billion ($929.1 million in cash value) in the absence of a winner since August. How remote are the odds of winning? Just 1 in 292.2 million. The average player will have a better chance of being elected president than winning that prize. 

Powerball in January 2016 made the Guinness World Records’ “greatest jackpot in a national lottery” when three tickets won a $1.586 billion jackpot.

Powerball tickets are $2 per play and are sold in 45 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands (CNN and The Hill).

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