#The Bucks aren’t to be ‘trusted’ in the NBA playoffs

LAS VEGAS — With games tipping off in the morning, afternoon and evening, August Madness has arrived. Adam Silver’s bubble vision for the NBA is a big hit with bettors and bookmakers.

Basketball fans who were cheated out of the NCAA Tournament, which was stunningly canceled in March, are finally getting a hoops fix during a month normally reserved for football hype. The NBA playoffs not only promise to be a betting blockbuster, the chances of college tournament-type upsets are higher than ever.


Because each game in Orlando, Fla., is played on a neutral court and the entire atmosphere is a new experience, the favorites have more to fear. Is that Cinderella calling?

“It’s usually a No. 1 or 2 seed in the NBA Finals,” William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said. “The best-of-seven series is always so strong with the best team having an extra game at home, but these playoffs should be crazy. Not anyone, but almost anyone can win it.”

If the 88 seeding games of the past two weeks were a hint of what’s coming, the top seeds in the East (Bucks, Raptors) and West (Lakers, Clippers) have been put on upset alert. Underdogs went 44-42-1 against the spread — with one pick ’em game — during the restart. The Bucks (3-5 SU and ATS) and Lakers (3-5 SU, 1-7 ATS) looked especially vulnerable, although each team lacked motivation with a No. 1 seed secured.

The Westgate SuperBook recently moved the Clippers to NBA championship favorites at 5/2 odds, with the Lakers and Bucks each at 325. Boston (8/1) and Toronto (10/1) are the main threats to Milwaukee in the East.

“There’s something about the Bucks that I don’t trust,” Westgate oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said. “I still contend a healthy Clippers team is the best team in basketball. But even if you think it’s going to be between the Lakers and Clippers in the West, I don’t think they are just going to run through teams.”

The Rockets (20/1), Thunder (30/1) and Trail Blazers (40/1) appear to be the most dangerous ’dogs in the West. Houston and Oklahoma City meet in a first-round series that tips Tuesday, with William Hill pricing the Rockets as -150 series favorites.

James Harden has been hot in the bubble, averaging 35.3 points and shooting 54 percent from the floor. The Rockets, who play small-ball and fire 3-pointers at a rapid clip, will be without point guard Russell Westbrook (strained right quadriceps) for the start of the playoffs.

“The Rockets are certainly a wild card,” said Erin Rynning, a professional bettor and VSiN analyst. “I think there are a number of wild cards and, to me, that’s one of the biggest differences this year as compared to recent seasons. The last several seasons, you pretty knew there were three or four teams that would be in the NBA Finals.


“If you get in a seven-game series with the Rockets and they start knocking down 3s and gaining some confidence, you can get beat in a long series.”

Westbrook’s uncertain status is one reason Rynning said he’s eyeing the Thunder as an under-the-radar pick. Chris Paul has led Oklahoma City to an NBA best 44-28 ATS mark. The Thunder offer the better defense, and their size should wear down the Rockets, Rynning said.

Damian Lillard’s red-hot shooting and relentless play-making carried the Blazers to the No. 8 seed opposite the Lakers. LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Kyle Kuzma probably have too much firepower for Portland in a long series, but the Lakers have plenty of long-term concerns.

Avery Bradley, the Lakers’ best perimeter defender, opted not to return in July, and backup point guard Rajon Rondo will miss the first round with a fractured thumb. Depth is a problem, as is shooting — the Lakers ranked last in 3-point shooting percentage (30.3) in the last eight games.

“After watching the Lakers, I had to lower their power rating,” Rynning said. “I was down on the Lakers entering the bubble, and their play offered more evidence of cracks in the foundation. While the Blazers have been in playoff mode for two weeks, the Lakers’ play feels more like a Disney vacation. “To win an NBA title, at some point the curious cast of characters surrounding Davis and James must come through. I would be surprised if the Lakers win the title.”

The Lakers, according to most bookmakers, are attracting the largest wagers. It’s not March, but the books are in the midst of madness from a betting perspective.

“I really like how there are games spaced out all day. It’s a dynamic we have not had before. We are seeing big bets left and right,” Sherman said.

“Incredible is the only word I can say,” Bogdanovich said. “There’s so much money in the [futures] pot it’s unbelievable.”

Matt Youmans writes for VSiN.com, The Sports Betting Network.