News

#The latest from the ‘Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns’

Table of Contents

A sobering story about the stock market’s long-term future return

The S&P 500’s SPX total return over the next decade will be 0.7 annualized percentage points below inflation.

That’s the implication of where the “Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns” currently stands. This indicator, introduced in 2013 by the anonymous author of the Philosophical Economics blog, is based on the average investor allocation to equities. The author claimed that it had a better record predicting the market’s 10-year return than any other valuation indicator of which he/she was aware. I have…

Master your money.

Subscribe to MarketWatch.

Get this article and all of MarketWatch.

Access from any device. Anywhere. Anytime.

Subscribe Now

Already a subscriber?

Mark Hulbert

If you liked the article, do not forget to share it with your friends. Follow us on Google News too, click on the star and choose us from your favorites.