#Social distancing could stop surge of this deadly kids disease

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A 3-D illustration of acute flaccid myelitis disease (AFM).
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Social-distancing measures may be stopping the spread of more than just the coronavirus.

Acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) is a rare, polio-like disease that targets children and can cause paralysis — or even be fatal. Outbreaks have been spiking in larger waves of infection across the US every other summer since 2012, but doctors are hopeful America will avoid the outbreak anticipated for this season thanks to physical distancing.

“[There] is a good chance, based on the data that’s been analyzed, and just thinking theoretically, that we could social distance away an EV-D68 outbreak this year, which would be fantastic,” pediatric infectious disease physician Kevin Messacar told Gizmodo, referring to the virus which causes AFM.

Both EV-D68 and polio are enteroviruses, which generally cause a mild but untreatable infection with symptoms similar to the common cold, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Polio and AFM are exceptions, but polio has been successfully eradicated from large portions of the world thanks to a highly effective vaccine. AFM is incurable and there is currently no vaccine to prevent it.

Enteroviruses are spread through close contact with infected individuals, so scientists are hopeful lack of contact will lessen the number of infections. (However, it is suspected EV-D68 is not the only cause of AFM.)

Whether distancing can stop this summer’s surge depends significantly on how well Americans continue to social distance.

“This year really depends on how strictly the measures are put into place and if people comply with them,” said Messacar.

There’s also a possibility that, should the US skip this summer’s AFM surge, the disease will come back stronger than ever next summer. If children are spared the disease this summer, it will mean that next summer there will be a higher rate of kids without immunity.

“With all of these respiratory viruses, you have a bunch of people who haven’t gotten infected in a while,” Messacar said. “So you potentially could have even a larger susceptible group in upcoming seasons. And nobody really knows what would happen in that scenario.”

Still, Messacar believes avoiding a summer outbreak this year will be for the best, providing scientists with precious months to continue researching the disease, and hopefully having better preventive and treatment options by or before the next outbreak.

“You’re essentially buying time if you put off an outbreak, which is good news,” he said.