Vladimir Putin has made what can only be described as the worst geopolitical mistake of the 21st century. The Russian president thought he could walk into Ukraine and the country would just collapse or welcome the Russians in as ­liberators. 

For now, Russia claims it will settle for consolidating what territories it has and try to see if Ukraine will take a deal. The gist of it is that Russia is recognized as lord supreme of Crimea and the Donbas, and Ukraine is disarmed and has no chance of joining the European Union or NATO. 

Translation: Ukraine becomes a bigger version of Belarus. Next up for Putin would be Moldova, then the Baltics, then anywhere that has Russian speakers whom he can say he needs to “liberate.” 

The idea that Putin is serious about such nonsense — that Ukraine formally gives up Donbas and Crimea and won’t join NATO — is ridiculous. He knows these terms are unacceptable, and only offers them to keep up the appearance of rationality. Even if Ukraine were willing to accept this, Putin would change the terms. 

But we should be clear: There is no chance in hell that Ukraine is going to accept this. Would Winston Churchill have caved to Hitler in October 1940? Would the British people, staring down Nazi tyranny, have really swallowed such a deal? 

No, and you can bet our modern-day Ukrainian Churchill — yes, I have drunk the Kool-Aid — Volodymyr Zelensky, will never agree to such a deal. Nor do I see the West or NATO pressing him to take it. 

While Zelensky might not love the fact that NATO won’t implement a no-fly zone or get more directly involved, Washington, Kyiv and Brussels all say that Putin’s Russia is in no position to dictate any terms, as its forces have performed poorly — for now. In fact, they might even surmise that they can even get Russia to withdraw if they put enough pressure on Moscow. 

Brace for bombs 

So what does this mean for Russia’s strategy? What will Putin do, knowing that a negotiated settlement on his terms is impossible for Ukraine or the West to accept? 

Bomb and shell Ukraine back to the Stone Age. 

The rationale is simple. Putin’s economy will shrink 35% this year alone, and his foreign exchanges are worthless as a shield to save the Russian ruble. Collectively speaking, that means Putin’s war in Ukraine has already cost his country at least $1 trillion on paper. 

Putin needs to show the Russian people that he at least scored something for such immense amounts of blood and treasure — and that means his air force will soon head to the skies. That means his armies will soon shell Ukraine’s cities until they are nothing more than a bombed-out cinders. Think the images on TV and social media are horrific now? Oh, you haven’t seen anything yet. 

Putin has done this on several occasions. He wiped Grozny off the map back in 1999-2000, killing thousands in the process. He then turned Georgia into a rump state back in 2008, using whatever piece of military hardware he wanted to achieve his goals. 

Echoes of Syria 

But his recent intervention in Syria deserves special attention. There, Putin showcased what billions of dollars in oil revenues can do if you invest them in your military. While nowhere near as advanced as the US Air Force and lacking precision, over four years, Russia wiped out large sections of Syria’s metropolitan areas, literally winning Syria’s civil war from the sky. Have you noticed how Putin has turned refugees into weapons in Ukraine? He learned that trick in Syria. 

And here is where things get ugly. Putin showed a special zeal in Syria for bombing schools, hospitals, wastewater treatment centers, roads, bridges — anything where he could make the innocent suffer. We are already starting to see this happen in Ukraine, and I fear it is just the beginning, as Putin hopes he can persuade Ukraine to accept peace on his terms. 

But as history always proves, weaponizing genocide comes at the heaviest of prices. As Putin applies more and more pressure, turning Ukraine into a graveyard roughly the size of Texas, he will face increasing pressure every time he drops another bomb, commits another war crime or vacuum-bombs another neighborhood. 

Putin is gambling he can raise the stakes faster than NATO and Ukraine and force a settlement. My sense is that his strategy will only backfire, putting Putin in an even worse position. At that point, there is no telling what Vlad will do next. But you can bank on at least one thing: He will strike back at the West for his failings in Ukraine. 

What happens when a nuclear-armed dictator with the ability to literally destroy civilization in 30 minutes is backed into a corner he doesn’t see a way out of? Pray to God we don’t have to find out. 

Harry J. Kazianis is the senior director at the Center for the National Interest. Twitter: @Grecianformula