Marine Le Pen, president of France? Just five years ago, that was unimaginable. Now, as France’s presidential elections close on April 24, the impossible has become a distinct possibility.

Le Pen is currently polling at 43-45% behind President Emmanuel Macron. With such a small margin of error, anything could happen.

Once seen as a dangerous far-right ideologue whose father Jean-Marie was the Honorary President of the National Front, Le Pen has recently reinvented her image and elevated her discourse — while continuing to espouse anti-immigration and anti-Islamic ideas, such as the banning of headscarves in public. But today, many of these ideas are popular with a majority of the French people. 

Terrorist attacks starting in Paris in 2015 have given rise to an anti-Islamic sentiment across much of French society and politics. The French are also worried about the decline of secular values, as 2016 polls showed that 30% of French Muslims believe Sharia law is more important than civil law.

Meanwhile, the French are dissatisfied with President Macron’s style of government: the brutal approach of an aloof and unempathetic, authoritarian leader. They accuse him of seeking to stifle the pre-election debate by focusing exclusively on the war in Ukraine.

Although this tactic worked for a month, his meeting with Vladimir Putin on Feb. 7 and his ensuing phone conversations did him no favors. The French people were put off by Macron’s refusal to campaign or participate in debates with other candidates. 

Since the first round of votes showed LePen pulling closer to victory, Macron has increased his rallies and interviews, and met with the types of French people who’ve long been dissatisfied with him. Last weekend, he held a rally in the southern city of Marseille where he specifically targeted leftist and Green-party supporters. 

A photo of Macron released later that day, lounging casually, his shirt unbuttoned to reveal a chestful of hair, was also likely intended to boost his likability factor. (Although many observers suggested the image had been photoshopped).

His tactics might work after this past Wednesday’s television debate where Macron performed comfortably against Le Pen. Polls now show him advancing with an increasing margin. But one cannot underestimate how much the French have grown to detest Macron. The anger that fueled the “Yellow Jacket” protests, which erupted in 2018 over declining middle class living standards, still simmers — and could even explode again if Macron wins the election. Meanwhile, his blunt, combative remarks, such as “I want to piss off the five million antivaxxers,” have come off as tone-deaf and only degraded his image.

Le Pen, meanwhile, has built her campaign for the National Rally Party around the economy. Immediately after the first round of voting, she focused on France’s soaring inflation rate, promising French families between 150 and 250 euros per month to boost household “spending power.”

At 53, this is Le Pen’s third shot at the presidency, and Sunday is likely her last chance to enter the Elysee Palace. A divorced mother of three, she began her career as a lawyer and lives with six cats who’ve now become part of her public persona. Via multiple TikTok appearances, the cats have helped soften the paper trail of her past racist and antisemitic remarks that have twice doomed her political hopes.

She has also taken a more moderate approach on international relations, too. France will not leave the European Union — triggering a “Frexit” — if she gets elected. But while she claims to want to remain in the EU, she has said it is to “reform it from the inside.” Le Pen said she will break the Franco-German alignment, the engine of European construction for decades, because it is not working properly — and the French agree with that.

Le Pen does not seem poised to become a French Donald Trump, having so far rejected the extreme populist tone of the former US president. But she nonetheless intends to give France its independence when it comes to diplomacy. This appeals to the French people, nostalgic for the days of General Charles De Gaulle. Putting France first, aligning less with the United States, and departing from NATO’s integrated military command structure, are her priorities. Like Trump, Marine Le Pen will prioritize bilateral diplomacy over forced multilateralism. 

While Le Pen has softened her tone in order to attract more centrist voters, the question now remains as to whether, at the last minute, in the secrecy of the voting booth, the French people will back down, worried about the consequences of such a victory. Already they are worried about their country’s place in the world and its decline under Macron. A rightward shift could prove that France is not impervious to the winds of conservative populism that have rocked its supposedly less sophisticated allies, Britain and America.

Georges Malbrunot is a senior foreign correspondent for Le Figaro in Paris.