The US economy is at greater risk of falling into a recession over the next year due to higher oil prices and the specter of a prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to experts at investment banking giant Goldman Sachs.

The analysts at the bank peg a recession risk in the US at 35% — up from a 10% risk just a year ago.

“While our baseline forecast assumes that further service sector reopening and spending from excess savings will keep real GDP growth positive in the coming quarters, uncertainty around the outlook is higher than normal,” Goldman analysts wrote in their report.

The analysts predicted that unemployment would remain relatively low at 3.5% and that the economy would continue to see “healthy job gains in 2022 despite fairly weak GDP growth due to strong labor demand.”

Goldman analysts downgraded their forecast for GDP growth. Instead of a 1% growth in GDP during the first quarter of fiscal year 2022, experts now anticipate 0.5% growth. Earlier estimates predicted 2.5% growth in the second and third quarters, though now that has been downgraded to 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively.

One small sign of optimism is predictions for the fourth quarter. Previous estimates expected 2% growth in GDP, though the revised outlook calls for 2.5%.

Overall, however, GDP growth this fiscal year is expected to reach 1.75% — down from the previous estimate of 2%.

The US economy will be affected by prolonged conflict in Ukraine, particularly as it relates to higher commodity prices.

Crude oil and agriculture will be more expensive. Goldman analysts predict that a barrel of Brent crude will reach $135 per barrel within six months before falling to $115 a barrel in the early part of 2023.

Analysts believe the increasing cost of energy will mean less disposable income for Americans who would otherwise pump that money into the economy.

“Rising commodity prices will likely result in a drag on consumer spending, as households — and lower-income households in particular — are forced to spend a larger share of income on food and gas,” Goldman analysts said in their report.

Europe is at higher risk of recession, according to Goldman analysts. The investment bank downgraded the continent’s GDP growth forecast from 3.9% to 2.5%. The European Union, unlike the United States, is heavily reliant on energy exports from Russia.

The EU and the US have imposed sanctions on wide swaths of the Russian banking and finance sector, though they have avoided harsh penalties against the country’s energy industry.

The report comes on the heels of new Labor Department data showing that inflation rose at its fastest pace in four decades last month.

The Consumer Price Index, a closely tracked inflation gauge that details the costs of goods and services, rose 7.9% in the 12-month period that ended in February — the fastest pace of inflation since 1982.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Thursday that Americans should gird for at least another year of “very uncomfortably high” levels of inflation.