#NYC public enrollment schools drops by 12% since pre-pandemic

Mayor Eric Adams and Chancellor David Banks have inherited a school system that is shrinking rapidly, particularly in the elementary grades. But it’s not necessarily bad news — if they take the opportunity it provides to better serve students.

Detailed data the State Education Department released this week reveal that enrollment in kindergarten through eighth grade in city public schools is down by 41,017 students this year, after last year’s decline of 32,273.

That’s an eye-popping drop of 73,290 students, or 12%, since the last pre-pandemic school year, 2018-19. Enrollment in city public high schools is also down, but by less: This year’s drop of 7,281 students combined with last year’s 3,085 means a 3.5% decline over two years.

The stark decline in kindergarten to eighth-grade enrollment is even more dramatic in the earliest grades. This year’s kindergarten class is 14% smaller than the class two years ago, and similar losses took place in all grades through sixth.

For the new leadership of the city and school system, this is the new reality. City birth rates are down, and COVID appears to have persuaded some families with school-age children to leave town. The system has also disappointed a number of parents, who have gone to charter, private and religious schools instead. We do not know if the recent years’ lower birth rates will be temporary or reflect a larger generational change, but smaller groups of kindergarten, first- and second-graders will be wending their way through the system for the next 10 to 12 years. The system’s planners must accept this trend as a sign that the groups entering kindergarten this fall and subsequent ones may very likely continue to diminish in size.

There’s an opportunity here, if only the city’s school officials will seize it. Nobody likes overcrowded schools, and the reduced number of students frees up space to create new and diverse types of schools — particularly in areas where the system has fallen short in recent years.

The mayor is already on record correctly citing the need to increase access to Gifted and Talented Programs, not by rationing existing seats through lotteries as his predecessor was wont to do, but by actually growing the number of programs available. But while the space to create those new programs may be newly available, the city’s gifted program needs to be improved rather than just expanded, and the dwindling numbers provide an opportunity to do just that.

The best theorists on G&T education all suggest that what a school does with the students in such programs is as, or more, important than how it selects them. Thus, growth in such programs needs to incorporate innovative approaches, and the system should seek to partner with people and institutions that know how to do that. It should also continue the previous mayor’s commitment to cease screening students for these programs at age 4, giving all students a chance to show their true talents once they have been in elementary school for two or three years.

At the same time, not all students are bound for college — and our education system must reflect that. This is true in every state and school district in the country. Unfortunately, our schools have been caught in the endless loop of expectations raised beyond reality — to the students’ detriments.

Yes, most students should be given the foundation in elementary and middle school that will equip them for higher studies in high school — and college if that is where their path lies. But as I discussed in a recent report on the state’s community-college programs, we should make provisions for those students whose achievements and interests by grade eight indicate they’re better suited for workforce preparation. The city and state have been moving in this direction but too slowly. While we have the opportunity, let’s innovate to fill this important need for many young people.

Finally, the other new reality evident in the enrollment data is one teachers unions would prefer to ignore: New York schools are in a competitive marketplace. Parents have options inside and outside the city. Despite the pernicious cap on the creation of charter schools in the city, enrollment in those public schools has continued to grow during the pandemic — by 7.9% in grades K-8 and 11.6% in grades 9-12. The cap must be lifted, and the city should return to the policy of placing new charters in underused DOE school buildings.

Ray Domanico is a senior fellow and director of education policy at the Manhattan Institute.