#Retribution, isolation and deportation: What to expect from a second Trump term

Less than two months out from the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses, former President Donald Trump seems well on his way to securing a third consecutive Republican nomination for president. 

And, with public polling increasingly showing Trump leading President Biden — including by 6 points (53 percent to 47 percent) per a recent Messenger/Harris X poll — the question of what a second Trump term would look like must be seriously considered, especially in light of recent comments that have sparked fears about what another four years of a Trump presidency would mean for our country, and indeed, our democracy. 

Asked by Sean Hannity whether he promises voters that he “would never abuse power as retribution against anybody?” Trump responded — and repeated — “Except for day one,” and the former president has made no secret that he would attempt to exact “retribution” on his political enemies. 

To be clear, those words are deeply troubling when said by the leading candidate for president of the United States of America. And while some are understandably concerned over that language, the political impact of Trump’s return to the Oval Office is just as important to examine. 

Aside from using the power of the presidency to punish his opponents, a second Trump term would almost certainly see hardline immigration policies, a drastic increase in military spending while at the same time a reduction of America’s military commitments abroad, another round of tax cuts, incentives to reshore manufacturing jobs — ironically, a policy he shares with Biden — and a realignment of America’s traditional allies in favor of authoritarian governments around the world.  

That said, as is Trump’s style, his rhetoric and campaign website are heavy on bluster, with bold, sweeping proclamations of what he plans to do in office, and while some would face congressional and legal objections, there are some key areas, particularly immigration, health care, the economy and foreign policy, where Trump has provided actual insight into what a second term looks like. 

He has already promised to bring the Justice Department more firmly under White House control, and will likely seek to expand the role of the federal government in elections, still stinging from his 2020 loss to Biden. 

Of course, this would bring the executive branch into direct conflict with the other branches of government — and states — all of which would certainly challenge an assertive White House sidelining the Constitution in order to maximize its power. 

On immigration, Trump has made clear that he has aggressive policies in mind. Advisors to the former president have said, “Stopping the invasion at our southern border is an urgent national security necessity and one of President Trump’s top priorities” and a pillar of his “day one dictator” policy unveiled to Hannity was “closing the border” and ending automatic citizenship to “Dreamers.”  

To that end, Trump’s stated plans include terminating work permits for undocumented immigrants, rounding up the undocumented already in the U.S. and placing them in “deportation camps” before ultimately deporting them.  

Related to health care, Trump is likely to revive his efforts to repeal ObamaCare, which failed during his first term over Senate objections. This has been a perennial losing issue for Republicans, highlighted by voters trusting Democrats — rather than Republicans — by a 23 point margin (45 percent to 22 percent) to handle health care, per NBC polling, but that is unlikely to dissuade Trump, who has long sought to replace his predecessor’s namesake health care legislation. 

Economically, Trump figures to try and drastically lower government spending, cut taxes and has even threatened to use presidential power to circumvent congressional power of the purse. The caveat, of course, is that Trump promised to rein in government spending during his first term, only to see the national debt rise by nearly $8 trillion.    

While much of Trump’s domestic agenda, especially the most extreme aspects, are unlikely to come to fruition amid expected pushback from Congress, the courts, and even state governments, the president does have more freedom in setting America’s foreign policy, and that is where a second Trump term may be most consequential.  

If his first four years were any guide, Trump’s return to the White House will lead to America’s deepening isolation on the world stage and a realignment away from our traditional allies towards more authoritarian governments like those in Hungary, Poland, the Netherlands and even Russia, which would be more than happy to see Trump return. Trump often publicly sided with Russian President Vladimir Putin over his own government and notably praised Putin’s “genius” shortly after his full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. 

In that same vein, Russia and China would likely fill the void left by America’s withdrawal from the global stage, leading to increased global instability and the continued fracturing of the world into spheres of influence.  

Trump’s relationship with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, rocky during Trump’s first term, would be key to watch. If Xi felt emboldened, convinced that the U.S. was significantly reducing its presence in Asia, he may believe he has a free hand to launch his much-desired invasion of Taiwan.  

And despite Trump’s pledges to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, a retreating America would have dire consequences for Ukraine’s continued ability to defend itself against Russia’s invasion, leading to the war ending on terms vastly more favorable to Moscow than to whatever remains of Ukraine. 

Ultimately, like the man himself, a second Trump term would be unpredictable. Much would depend on who staffed the administration and the makeup of Congress. And yet, if his speeches and aggressive political platform are any indications, the role of the presidency would be drastically reformed, with unknown implications for the wider global arena, and America’s place in it. 

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”