#Padres vs. Rangers prediction: New Texas ballpark an Under factory

While the heat of Texas can cause balls to soar when exposed, the new Globe Life Park in Arlington has a retractable roof, and that has led to less offense in Texas Rangers home games when the roof has been closed.

Seven of the first 11 Rangers home games have gone Under the total entering their series with the San Diego Padres, with only three ballparks registering a higher Under rate. For comparison, Overs were 42-38-1 in Arlington in 2019, and the team is scoring 3.55 runs per game at home this season (down from 5.6).

The Rangers’ team ERA is 3.00 at home this year (down from 5.37), allowing 0.82 home runs per nine innings (down from 1.5). Mike Minor will look to keep this going for the Rangers as he has posted a 1.00 ERA at home in two starts this season while his road ERA is 9.28.

With Texas ranking 29th in MLB in home runs per game and the Padres averaging 1.25 home runs per game on the road as compared to 2.1 at home, it should be a struggle to score.

A forgotten variable with the new stadium is ground balls. While everyone focuses on fly balls in a stadium with a retractable roof, many have not factored that the roof being mostly closed causes the infield dirt to be softer and could explain why Rangers pitchers are allowing opponents to hit .204 at home this season as compared to .277 in 2019.

The play: Padres-Rangers total, Under 9 1/2 runs.