#Oscar’s Path Is Paved With Guilds

SAG Award: Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Frontrunner: The odds-on favorite

Wicked – Jonathan Bailey, Marissa Bode, Peter Dinklage, Cynthia Erivo, Jeff Goldblum, Ariana Grande, Ethan Slater, Bowen Yang & Michelle Yeoh

A big box office hit nominated in this category often wins (Oppenheimer, Black Panther, Hidden Figures).

Possible spoiler: The tempting alternative

Emilia Pérez – Karla Sofía Gascón, Selena Gomez, Adriana Paz & Zoe Saldaña

The guild has a long history of embracing diversity in this category. But it’s certainly possible that the cast’s prospects have been damaged by the Gascón X (Twitter) scandal, as final voting is open through Feb. 21.

Making a statement: The send-a-message-to-the-Academy vote

Anora – Yura Borisov, Mark Eydelshteyn, Karren Karagulian, Mikey Madison, Aleksei Serebryakov & Vache Tovmasyan

It would be a major endorsement if the guild rewards the only nominated cast without a household name.

DGA AWARD: Outstanding Directing—Feature Film

Frontrunner: The odds-on favorite

The Brutalist – Brady Corbet

The filmmaker who had what appears to be the heaviest lift tends to get rewarded by his/her peers.

Possible spoiler: The tempting alternative

Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard

The guild has shown an undeniable openness to celebrating filmmakers from outside America.

Making a statement: The send-a-message-to-the-Academy vote

Conclave -Edward Berger

This would be a harsh reproach of the Academy’s directors branch, which didn’t nominate Berger.

PGA Award: David O. Selznick Achievement Award in Theatrical Motion Pictures

Frontrunner: The odds-on favorite

Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard 

Final voting closed on Jan. 30, the day that the Gascón X scandal broke, so the film’s prospects may not have been impacted with this particular awards body, which last awarded a musical in 2017 (La La Land).

Possible spoiler: The tempting alternative

Wicked – Marc Platt

Nobody cares about a film’s box office performance more than producers, and this film is a giant blockbuster. Plus, Platt previously won as one of the producers of La La Land.

Making a statement: The send-a-message-to-the-Academy vote

A Complete Unknown – Fred Berger, Alex Heineman & James Mangold

A win here would signal to Oscar voters that a vote for the Dylan film would not be wasted, given that this is the only other major award determined by a preferential ballot. 

WGA Award: Best Adapted Screenplay

Frontrunner: The odds-on favorite

A Complete Unknown – Jay Cocks & James Mangold

Given that fellow adapted screenplay Oscar nominees Conclave, Emilia Pérez and Sing Sing are ineligible with this guild, the path here seems fairly clear for this fan favorite.

Possible spoiler: The tempting alternative

Nickel Boys – Joslyn Barnes & RaMell Ross

The only other Oscar nominee that’s nominated here, it’s a more polarizing adaptation than A Complete Unknown, but a win is not out of the question.

Making a statement: The send-a-message-to-the-Academy vote

Dune: Part Two – Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve

The guild could chide the Academy’s writers branch by awarding this film’s script, which the branch declined to even nominate. (Both groups nominated the script for the first Dune.)

WGA Award: Best Original Screenplay

Frontrunner: The odds-on favorite

Anora – Sean Baker

Though the guild has never nominated him before this year, Baker is a beloved member of the community, and his film is by far the highest-profile contender in the category.

Possible spoiler: The tempting alternative

A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg

This is the only nominee in this category besides Anora that also landed an Oscar nom. And the guild has a long history of recognizing actors who also write, from Sacha Baron Cohen to Sarah Polley.

Making a statement: The send-a-message-to-the-Academy vote

Civil War – Alex Garland

The WGA could, theoretically, recognize this script by a first-time guild nominee, as something of a statement about the state of the country in the era of Trump 2.0.

This story appeared in the Feb. 5 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.