#NHL playoffs matchups, prediction: Islanders-Penguins going 7

After getting to within two wins of the Stanley Cup final during the bubble playoffs last season, the Islanders are ravenous to taste the finals this season. But a rather evenly matched series against the Penguins will be their first obstacle to getting back to the conference finals and ultimately going further than last season. It’ll be a rematch of the memorable 2019 first round, in which the Islanders swept the Penguins in four games.

“Last year gives you a taste of how hard it can be, how fun it can be,” Cal Clutterbuck said. “Last years’ experience was, in my 13 or 14 years, was more than I’ve ever experienced when you come close like that and you realize that you have the guys in the room to get it done. It changes your perception of the playoffs, and it changes your perception of how hard it’s going to be.”

The Islanders went 2-6 against Pittsburgh this season, including four losses during their most successful stints in February and March. What is more concerning, though, is that the Islanders fell into a rut to end the regular season. The Penguins, on the other hand, powered themselves into the first seed in the East Division.

It’s easily one of the closest series of the first round. Both teams have players who can come alive at any moment, and it’ll be a matter of which one comes through the strongest throughout the series.

Goaltending

There is uncertainty surrounding both team’s starting goaltenders due to injury. Semyon Varlamov was a top-five starter in the NHL this season, but it is unclear how ready he’ll be for the start of the series after suffering an unspecified strain in the Islanders’ season finale Monday in Boston.

On Friday, Penguins goalie Casey DeSmith made a save during a power-play drill in practice and was slow to get up. Head coach Mike Sullivan said DeSmith had a lower-body injury and was still being evaluated.

If it comes down to the backups, Islanders rookie Ilya Sorokin and the Penguins’ Tristan Jerry, Pittsburgh would have a better chance of holding an edge. Jerry gave the Islanders fits all season, posting a .925 save percentage against them in six games.

Edge: Islanders

Defense

The Islanders gave up the second-fewest goals this season, with a lockdown 2.23 goals-against average. Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock are one of the toughest defensive pairs in the league, but faltered a bit against the Penguins.

Pittsburgh’s bottom two pairs have been more solid than the top pairing of Kris Letang and Brian Dumoulin. If the Islanders can exploit this pairing and stifle Letang’s offensive prowess, the Penguins could be vulnerable.

Edge: Islanders

Forwards

Pittsburgh has an elite top line — Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust — that the Islanders have been preparing for since the matchup was announced. With 193 goals this season, the Penguins posted the second-most in the NHL and held a 3.45 goals per game average. It’s no secret they have one of the most skilled offenses in the league.

It’ll be crucial for the Islanders to get Anthony Beauvillier and Oliver Wahlstrom going, especially in the absence of captain Anders Lee. Those two can be X-factors on offense to help balance out the lines. Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac must do what they were brought in to do: strengthen the offense.

Edge: Penguins

Special Teams

Pittsburgh owns a top-five power-play unit, while the Islanders are in the middle of the pack. But the Islanders bring a better penalty-kill, while the Penguins are in the bottom five with a 77.4 PK percentage.

Edge: Penguins

Coaching

There’s an argument to be made that the Penguins should’ve won that 2019 series, but head coach Barry Trotz had the Islanders playing with an edge that outworked and outmaneuvered Pittsburgh. That edge has only gotten sharper under Trotz, and though they were playing with a chip on their shoulder in 2019 after John Tavares spurned them, imagine what kind of motivation they’ll get from falling short of the Cup finals.

Mike Sullivan has two Stanley Cups on his résumé, but the Penguins have underperformed since those championships in his first two seasons.

Edge: Islanders

Prediction

The Islanders took their game to a whole new level during the bubble playoffs but fell short to the eventual Cup winners, the Lightning. With that experience and the new additions they traded for during the season, the Islanders have geared up to go further this time around.

Islanders in seven