#NFL Prop Picks: Target Patrick Mahomes to win his second MVP

Post prop maven Dave Blezow breaks down his favorite bets with some big payouts for you to cash in on this season

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

BLEZOW’S BREAKDOWN: Lamar Jackson started out at 100/1 in 2019, but ended up going 50 out of 50 in joining Tom Brady (2010) as the only unanimous MVPs in NFL history. You really need look only at the quarterbacks, who have won it 11 of the past 12 years. It’s a testament to Patrick Mahomes that he’s the chalk to regain the award he won in 2018. Perhaps voters will begin to hold Jackson’s two postseason failures against him, or maybe defensive coordinators will figure out some better way to stop him. It’s hard to go against the top two, but if there’s a third player in that mold, it could be Kyler Murray, who now has DeAndre Hopkins catching his passes. All eyes will be on Brady, who is surrounded by some good talent in Tampa. A better offensive line in Indianapolis could help Philip Rivers. And Dak Prescott has a lot to prove for $31.4 million.

WINNER

Patrick Mahomes

7/2

MID-RANGE THREAT

Dak Prescott

15/1

LIVE LONG SHOT

Philip Rivers

50/1

THE FAVORITES

PLAYER=TEAM=ODDS

Patrick Mahomes=Chiefs=7/2

Lamar Jackson=Ravens=6/1

Russell Wilson=Seahawks=8/1

Deshaun Watson=Texans=14/1

Dak Prescott=Cowboys=15/1

Tom Brady=Buccaneers=16/1

Drew Brees=Saints=18/1

Kyler Murray=Cardinals=20/1

Carson Wentz=Eagles=25/1

Aaron Rodgers=Packers=25/1

Saquon Barkley=Giants=30/1

Cam Newton=Patriots=30/1

Matt Ryan=Falcons=33/1

Jimmy Garoppolo=49ers=33/1

Derrick Henry=Titans=40/1

Christian McCaffrey=Panthers=40/1

Josh Allen=Bills=40/1

Philip Rivers=Colts=50/1

Jarrett Stidham=Patriots=50/1

Ben Roethlisberger=Steelers=50/1

Ezekiel Elliott=Cowboys=50/1

Baker Mayfield=Browns=50/1

Drew Lock=Broncos=60/1

Derek Carr=Raiders=60/1

Kirk Cousins=Vikings=66/1

Matthew Stafford=Lions=66/1

Ryan Tannehill=Titans=66/1

Alvin Kamara=Saints=75/1

Joe Burrow=Bengals=80/1

Sam Darnold=Jets=100/1

Daniel Jones=Giants=100/1

Tua Tagovailoa=Dolphins=100/1

Nick Foles=Bears=100/1

Jared Goff=Rams=100/1

Josh Jacobs=Raiders=100/1

Nick Bosa=49ers=100/1

Jameis Winston=Saints=100/1

Dalvin Cook=Vikings=100/1

Teddy Bridgewater=Panthers=100/1

Michael Thomas=Saints=100/1

Chase Young=Washington=100/1

Nick Chubb=Browns=125/1

Justin Herbert=Chargers=150/1

Khalil Mack=Bears=150/1

Gardner Minshew=Jaguars=150/1

David Johnson=Texans=150/1

J.J. Watt=Texans=150/1

Todd Gurley=Falcons=150/1

Aaron Donald=Rams=150/1

DeAndre Hopkins=Cardinals=150/1

PASSING YARDS

BLEZOW’S BREAKDOWN: The first thing that jumps out about the top-20 favorites for most passing yards is that last year’s leader, Jameis Winston, is not on the list. He threw for 5,109 yards for Tampa Bay, but also was intercepted 30 times and was exiled as the Bucs brought in Tom Brady. Now, Winston is Drew Brees’ backup in New Orleans. Dak Prescott was No. 2 and he’s in a contract year with Mike McCarthy in his ear. This could be Prescott’s time to light up the tote board, with CeeDee Lamb joining Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper. I’m going to pass on all of the real old-timers such as Brady, Brees and Aaron Rodgers, but am intrigued by Matthew Stafford, who had 2,499 yards in just eight games in 2019.

WINNER

Dak Prescott

7/1

MID-RANGE THREAT

Matthew Stafford

12/1

LIVE LONG SHOT

Derek Carr

40/1

PLAYER=TEAM=ODDS=’19 YDS (RK)

Patrick Mahomes=Chiefs=-380=4,031 (10th)

Matt Ryan=Falcons=7/1=4,466 (5th)

Dak Prescott=Cowboys=7/1=4,902 (2nd)

Tom Brady=Buccaneers=8/1=4,047 (7th)

Jared Goff=Rams=9/1=4,638 (3rd)

Philip Rivers=Colts=10/1=4,615 (4th)

Matthew Stafford=Lions=12/1=2,499 (29th)

Drew Brees=Saints=16/1=2,979 (26th)

Ben Roethlisberger=Steelers=16/1=351 (52nd)

Deshaun Watson=Texans=20/1=3,852 (13th)

Carson Wentz=Eagles=25/1=4,039 (9th)

Baker Mayfield=Browns=25/1=3,827 (14th)

Russell Wilson=Seahawks=25/1=4,110 (6th)

Aaron Rodgers=Packers=25/1=4,002 (11th)

Kyler Murray=Cardinals=25/1=3,722 (15th)

Derek Carr=Raiders=40/1=4,054 (8th)

Jimmy Garoppolo=49ers=40/1=3,978 (12th)

Daniel Jones=Giants=40/1=3,027 (24th)

Sam Darnold=Jets=50/1=3,024 (25th)

Kirk Cousins=Vikings=50/1=3,603 (16th)

RUSHING YARDS

BLEZOW’S BREAKDOWN: I don’t get to take too many bows in these player-prop predictions, but I did tab Derrick Henry in this category at 15/1 and he busted out for a 1,540-yard season. I’m going to try to beat Henry, and the best way to do it may be with last year’s runner-up, Nick Chubb. While Henry will be on everyone’s bulletin board, Chubb could still be a little under the radar, obscured a bit by the Browns’ big personalities, Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. Christian McCaffrey is a wild card. He had more than 1,000 yards receiving to go with his third-best rushing total. Will new Carolina coach Matt Rhule lean more to the passing game with him? Don’t sleep on Josh Jacobs (1,130 yards in 13 games) out in Las Vegas.

WINNER

Nick Chubb

9/1

FINE FAVE

Derrick Henry

6/1

MID-RANGE THREAT

Josh Jacobs

14/1

PLAYER=TEAM=ODDS=’19 YDS (RK)

Derrick Henry=Titans=6/1=1,540 (1st)

Ezekiel Elliott=Cowboys=7/1=1,357 (4th)

Saquon Barkley=Giants=9/1=1,003 (16th)

Nick Chubb=Browns=9/1=1,494 (2nd)

Christian McCaffrey=Panthers=12/1=1,387 (3rd)

Joe Mixon=Bengals=12/1=1,137 (9th)

Josh Jacobs=Raiders=14/1=1,150 (8th)

Dalvin Cook=Vikings=14/1=1,135 (10th)

Chris Carson=Seahawks=18/1=1,250 (5th)

Raheem Mostert=49ers=20/1=772 (26th)

Lamar Jackson=Ravens=25/1=1,206 (6th)

Miles Sanders=Eagles=25/1=818 (21st)

Aaron Jones=Packers=25/1=1,084 (12th)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire=Chiefs=25/1=Rookie

Kenyan Drake=Cardinals=25/1=817 (22nd)

Le’Veon Bell=Jets=33/1=789 (24th)

David Johnson=Texans=33/1=345 (54th)

Todd Gurley=Falcons=33/1=857 (20th)

Alvin Kamara=Saints=33/1=797 (23rd)

Leonard Fournette=Buccaneers=33/1=1,152 (7th)

RECEIVING YARDS

BLEZOW’S BREAKDOWN: This is a strange top-20 odds list, as it includes receivers who ranked 77th, 87th and 109th, and one (A.J. Green) who didn’t even play in 2019. Of all of the players who won their category last year, I like Michael Thomas’ chances to repeat the best. He’ll still benefit from the Sean Payton-Drew Brees partnership and from having tons of talent around him, including potentially a 5,000-yard backup QB in Jameis Winston. I’m discounting the Bucs duo of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, as I don’t see Tom Brady throwing 40-45 times every week. It’d be foolish to count out Julio Jones. And as you’ve seen I’m high on Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott, so they could elevate Kenny Golladay and Amari Cooper.

WINNER

Michael Thomas

5/1

MID-RANGE THREAT

Kenny Golladay

20/1

LIVE LONG SHOT

Amari Cooper

33/1

PLAYER=TEAM=ODDS=’19 YDS (RK)

Michael Thomas=Saints=5/1=1,725 (1st)

Julio Jones=Falcons=9/1=1,394 (2nd)

Chris Godwin=Buccaneers=10/1=1,333 (3rd)

Davante Adams=Packers=14/1=997 (30th)

Mike Evans=Buccaneers=14/1=1,157 (13th)

DeAndre Hopkins=14/1=1,165 (11th)

Tyreek Hill=Chiefs=16/1=860 (37th)

Kenny Golladay=Lions=20/1=1,190 (7th)

Odell Beckham Jr.=Browns=25/1=1,305 (26th)

T.Y. Hilton=Colts=28/1=501=(87th)

Adam Thielen=Vikings=30/1=418 (109th)

D.J. Moore=Panthers=30/1=1,175 (9th)

George Kittle=49ers=33/1=1,053 (23rd)

Courtland Sutton=Broncos=33/1=1,112 (19th)

A.J. Green=Bengals=33/1=DNP

JuJu Smith-Schuster=Steelers=33/1=552 (77th)

DeVante Parker=Dolphins=33/1=1,202 (5th)

Travis Kelce=Chiefs=33/1=1,229 (4th)

Amari Cooper=Cowboys=33/1=1,189 (8th)

Keenan Allen=Chargers=33/1=1,119 (6th)

OTHER BETS WORTH MAKING

In 2019, we went 4-0 on these extra props (Lions Under 6¹/₂ wins; Raiders Over 6 wins; Under 3¹/₂ individual 200-yard rushing games; DeAndre Hopkins more receiving yards than JuJu Smith-Schuster). So we’re going in with some confidence:

Washington Football Team Under 5 wins ( 105): There have been teams that have folded that have had better offseasons than the “WFT.” Most of the damage has been self-inflicted, and new coach Ron Rivera’s illness is downright sad. Tough schedule featuring AFC North and NFC West makes this a 3-4 win team max.

Carolina Panthers Under 5¹/₂ wins (Even): A college coach (Matt Rhule) and a new QB (Teddy Bridgewater) have had no preseason to prepare for a killer schedule that includes six games with the Saints, Bucs and Falcons, plus visits to Kansas City, Minnesota and Green Bay.

Jimmy Garoppolo Over 24¹/₂ touchdown passes (-110): He threw 27 in a 2019 season in which the 49ers went 13-3 and were playing from ahead most of the time. If this season is a little bumpier, Jimmy G may have to do more.

Drew Lock Over 3,500¹/₂ passing yards (-110): Lock averaged 204 yards per game in his five starts last season. If he keeps the job and stays healthy, it shouldn’t be hard for him to up those numbers a bit with Jerry Jeudy joining Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant.