#Handicapping the effect of MLB’s regional schedule

With the 2020 MLB season set to open in less than a week, the abbreviated schedule offers bettors unique opportunities.

This is a first of its kind in MLB scheduling, and teams that have fared well recently in divisional play should have an advantage over teams that haven’t, assuming patterns remain consistent. I examined the recent records of all 30 teams in their 2020 schedule scenarios to see which might benefit most and least from the arrangement.

I am always looking for an advantage, particularly when a team’s schedule will have an extreme impact on its projected success. The 2020 schedule fits that situation. Certain teams play better or worse against divisional opponents or in their regions. Without having to face teams outside this pocket, these trends will be magnified in 2020.

Here are some notes from my study of teams’ records over the past five seasons against teams on their 2020 schedules as compared with all others. I am assuming that teams that have performed better against their 2020 opponents have an advantage as compared with those that haven’t or face a disadvantage. I have also noted the best and worst betting matchups by division and in interleague play for each team in 2020 based on return on investment since 2015.

• Divisional games have always been most important on a team’s schedule, but with those contests representing two-thirds of the 2020 slate, they become even more crucial. This analysis could be broken down even further since the 10 games each team will play against every divisional opponent will not be split evenly between home and road.With 40 games against divisional opponents and 20 against the same division in the other league, divisional games take on double the importance. My formula for total advantage uses that same ratio.
• Theoretically, a 1 percent advantage represents about 0.6 wins on the 60-game schedule. Therefore, using Houston’s projected advantage of 8.2 percent, this would suggest the Astros could win about 4.9 more games against their 2020 opponents than they would have had the 60-game schedule been distributed normally. The important part is whether oddsmakers have considered this factor in building their season win total options. From what I know about the process, they have not.
• According to the numbers, the teams with the biggest “advantage” for 2020 are the Astros and the Cleveland Indians ( 7.5 percent). I can assure you the difference for the Indians has not been considered — in the win totals at William Hill, the Indians aren’t even projected first in their division. They have won over 60 percent of their divisional games in the past five seasons (228-150). The 2020 schedule surely has to benefit Cleveland.
• The teams with the biggest disadvantage are unsurprisingly two of the worst in baseball, Seattle (-6.8 percent) and Miami (-7.3 percent). Both have played far better outside their regional opponents than against their divisional rivals and opposite interleague divisions. The 2020 schedule includes no such games, meaning the trends will have to change drastically for these teams to compete.
• The teams expected to win the pennants, the New York Yankees in the AL and Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL, are in disadvantageous scheduling situations. The Yankees are only a slight -1.2 percent in my calculation, meaning the 2020 schedule figures to cost them no more than a game in the expected standings. However, at -5.1 percent disadvantage, the Dodgers face a much more significant challenge, as that would equate to about three fewer victories than expected. Combine this with left-hander David Price’s decision not to play this season, and the defending NL champs could be a good Under wager for their season win total.
• Seventeen of the 30 teams are in what would be described as advantageous situations with the current schedule, though six are less than 1 percent. On the negative side, you’ll find the defending world champion Washington Nationals (-0.3 percent) as well as three other somewhat trendy picks for this season: the Tampa Bay Rays (-0.5 percent), Cincinnati Reds (-1.0 percent) and Chicago White Sox (-3.1 percent). This factor should be considered in analyzing the lofty expectations for all three.