#Josh Allen feels destined to be a fantasy football bust in 2020

The worst thing that can happen in a fantasy draft is to pick a player with a high, valuable pick, then have that player underperform. These busts can ruin a roster.

Because these are normally high-profile players, it is often hard to envision them not performing to expectations. But every year, it happens to several across the league at various positions.

Finding quarterback busts is harder than other positions, since most QBs are picked later in the draft — when a disappointing season is less damaging because you didn’t spend a lot of draft capital to acquire him.

But there are always a few who go a few rounds too early and run a higher risk of not delivering production on par with their draft cost. Like Josh Allen. We wouldn’t mind having Allen as our fantasy QB – his rushing prowess helps offset often erratic passing numbers. And sure, he improved significantly last season after a poor rookie year — raising his completion percentage 6 points (though still a paltry 58.8), doubling his passing TDs and cutting down his interceptions.

Though, we also still aren’t thrilled with his receiving corps, despite adding Stefon Diggs this season. And we worry Allen is primed for a decline in rushing TDs. He had eight and nine in consecutive years. Even the best rushing QBs have trouble stringing together eight-TD seasons. Cam Newton, the best comparison for Allen, has done it just once – his first two years (14 and eight). He has topped eight rushing TDs just once since. Dak Prescott had six in three straight seasons before declining to three last year.

Even Michael Vick, perhaps the most dangerous running QB we’ve seen, had eight or more rushing TDs in a season just twice in 13 seasons. For all the well-deserved praise Lamar Jackson has earned, he had just seven rushing TDs last season.

So without confidence Allen can post huge fantasy numbers with his arm, and with history telling us continued production on the ground at his current pace is a rarity, we do not want to spend a sixth- or seventh-round pick on Allen. Especially when other options like Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady are still on the board.

We have fewer worries about Prescott, but he also has a higher draft cost, often going in Rounds 4-5. He is the third or fourth QB off the board in most drafts. Based on last season, when he finished second in QB fantasy points behind only Jackson, that is not an absurd idea.

Yet, in the three years prior, Prescott finished 10th, 11th and sixth among QBs. We expect a regression toward those outputs. If it lands somewhere halfway between, that would put him in the company of Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson a round or so later. If we’re picking among those, we like Watson the best, and we consider Murray virtually equal (Murray with a higher upside, Prescott a more dependable option).

None of this means we aren’t comfortable with Prescott or Allen on our rosters, we just don’t want to pay the price tag required to get them.