#Joe Burrow will win first NFL game

Three games into his rookie season, Joe Burrow has made a convincing case he was worthy of the No. 1-overall pick. That’s not easy to do — the Cleveland Browns’ Baker Mayfield is still trying to prove it three games into his third year. Burrow is displaying poise and toughness in the pocket to go with passing accuracy.

He needs the toughness because the Cincinnati Bengals’ offensive line is a major weakness, and Burrow has been sacked a league-high 14 times heading into Sunday’s home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Burrow went 31-for-44 for 312 yards and two touchdowns (both to rookie receiver Tee Higgins) with no interceptions at Philadelphia in Week 3. He has thrown one interception in 141 pass attempts.

It’s actually surprising Burrow looks so good considering there was no preseason. If Joe Mixon can find a way to spark a lifeless running attack, the Bengals will be in business. The other big problem for Cincinnati is its run defense, which ranks 31st in the league.

I’m not going to pretend there’s a lot of value in this number because I would not lay more than a field goal. I have Cincinnati rated 1.5 points higher than Jacksonville on a neutral field. Still, Burrow played Carson Wentz to a tie and should outplay Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew by enough of a margin for Cincinnati (0-2-1 SU, -8 point differential) to get the win. The arrow is pointing up for Burrow and the Bengals.

The play: Bengals, -2.5