#Jets will keep it close versus Bills

It’s amazing how willing we are to fast-forward through life. Since 7 p.m. last Sunday, it has been concluded that the New York Jets will go 0-16 and secure the No. 1-overall pick in the 2021 draft … and that Trevor Lawrence either will pull a Peyton Manning and stay at Clemson, or pull an Eli Manning and force a trade.

(Deep breath) …

Let’s remember it’s just Week 7. Last season entering Week 7, the Jets were 1-4, coming off a surprise win over the Dallas Cowboys and headed for the 33-0 “seeing ghosts” debacle versus the New England Patriots, which was followed by losses at Jacksonville and Miami. Oh, did I forget to mention the Jets finished 7-9?

Now, there are a lot of reasons why 2020 isn’t 2019. Adam Gase looks like a goner sometime soon; general manager Joe Douglas has begun a fire sale, even though the team won’t acknowledge those words; and the schedule looks brutal. But to that final point, we don’t know what’s going to happen in any single NFL game, let alone 10 games across more than two months.

The Jets are getting double digits at home against a Buffalo Bills team that has lost two games in a row and is traveling on a short week after giving up 245 rushing yards to the Kansas City Chiefs. Sean McDermott’s team needs a win, but in this situation, the result figures to be more important than the margin.

It’s too soon to know if Sam Darnold will return on Sunday, and if he does, whether he will have use of the trio of Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims for the first time. If that band is together, it would be a different Jets offense than what we’ve seen so far.

The pick: Jets, +12.

(Home team in CAPS)

Dallas Cowboys (+1) over WASHINGTON

This line opened Dallas -3.5 and has flipped, probably due to a combination of the Cowboys allowing 36.3 ppg and anonymous players complaining Mike McCarthy and his staff can’t coach. A tough WFT defensive line goes up against a battered Cowboys OL. It’s all going against the Cowboys, which makes me want to pick them.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (+3) over Cleveland Browns

This is the first opponent Joe Burrow is facing for a second time. The learning curve could go both ways, but he put up 30 points in Cleveland in Week 2, and I’m figuring the familiarity will benefit him more.

Detroit Lions (+2.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS

Big win for the Falcons last week in Minnesota in Raheem Morris’s first game after replacing Dan Quinn as head coach. Sharp bettors are not sold, however, as they bet this opening line down below the key number of 3. According to VSiN, short road underdogs of +6 or less are 23-11 against the spread (64 percent) this season.

Carolina Panthers (+7.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The Panthers couldn’t get it done as favorites against the tough Bears defense last week, but now Teddy Bridgewater returns to New Orleans in his wildly successful role. He is 20-5 ATS (80 percent) in his career as an underdog, per VSiN.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS

Sharps and public bettors appear to be on the same side here, as they bet this up from Packers -3 in a bounce-back spot after the 38-10 loss at Tampa Bay. It was surreal how quickly and completely that game disintegrated, but the Packers are still a top team.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS

Here’s another line that flipped favorites after the Steelers started out -2.5. Now Pittsburgh fits into that 64 percent trend of short road ’dogs. Steelers are No. 2 in total yards and rushing yards allowed, so this is not a bunch Derrick Henry will be able to simply trample.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) over LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Game moved from Sunday night to the late-afternoon window as the Raiders deal with another COVID problem, which could prove to be anything from nuisance to dangerous. And here comes Tom Brady, backed by a Tampa Bay defense that completely shut down the Packers’ machine.

San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The Niners also qualify for our road ’dog trend, and Jimmy Garoppolo carries a 10-3 ATS mark as an underdog into his Foxborough homecoming. Niners LB Fred Warner has the speed to run down Cam Newton.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

This is a “hold your nose” selection, as the Jaguars have lost five in a row by an average of 12.6 points. But as good as Justin Herbert has looked, he’s still 0-4, and every Chargers game has been decided by seven or fewer points.

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) over DENVER BRONCOS

Tricky handicap for the first expected snow game of the season, as 21 degree temps and 3-6 inches of snow are forecast for Denver on Sunday. My sense is that Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and a suddenly stout power running game will be fine, while the conditions will hinder Drew Lock from attacking Kansas City’s defensive weaknesses. It is a ton of points to give to a Denver D that kept the Patriots out of the end zone, though.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (+3) over Seattle Seahawks

Arizona has the edge statistically by 6 yards per game offensively and 125 ypg defensively. The undefeated Seahawks do pull a lot of games out of the fire, often on the final play. This game was moved from an afternoon kickoff to prime time.

Monday Night Football

Chicago Bears (+6) over LOS ANGELES RAMS

Both teams are in the top seven in yards per game allowed and points per game allowed. That likelihood of a lower total of points makes the near-TD spread more valuable. And unless the line increases, the Bears fit the road dogs +6 or less trend that’s been highlighted.

Best betS: Packers, Panthers, Bears.
Lock of the week: Packers (Locks 1-4-1 in 2020).
Last week: 7-7 overall, 1-2 Best Bets.
Thursday: Eagles (L).