Is Netflix the Safe Hollywood Stock Now?

With worries about the impact of a global tariffs war, recession fears and stock market volatility, where should media and entertainment investors put their money in such tumultuous times?

Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne recommends Netflix shares ahead of the streaming giant’s first-quarter earnings report after the stock market close on April 17.

“A more defensive lens to our media & entertainment coverage leaves us incrementally bullish on Netflix,” he wrote in a recent report. “We expect Netflix to demonstrate relative resilience in a weaker global macro. Momentum in its core subscription business combined with recent U.S. dollar weakness should de-risk ’25 estimates – even in a softer ad market.” Reiterating his “overweight” rating on the stock, he designated Netflix his new top pick in the sector, noting that he and his team “view the recent
pullback [in the stock] as a buying opportunity, with over 30 percent upside to our $1,150 price target.”

After its recent pullback, the stock was up only 3 percent year-to-date as of Friday’s stock market close.

When Netflix posts its first-quarter 2025 results this week, the company, led by co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters, will no longer share subscriber figures. But Wall Street will look out for qualitative color on subscriber trends, including in the company’s advertising tier, and such hot-button issues as proposals for a streaming levy in the U.K. and investment requirements for global streamers in Germany.

It’s also a safe bet to expect Netflix executives to tout the success of such original series as Adolescence, and seasons 2 of The Night Agent and Squid Game.

“Financials in Focus as Regular Membership Reporting Sunsets,” was the headline Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris used for his earnings preview, in which he maintained a “buy” rating and $1,100 price target on Netflix shares.

“We continue to see incremental value creation via further membership growth, pricing power, and adjacent and emerging revenue streams,” he wrote. “Our third-party data analysis points to solid first-quarter membership growth, similar to the third-quarter 2024 level,” when the streamer added 5.1 million subs. “The first-quarter content slate was lighter than the blockbuster 4Q offering (which included Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson and two NFL Christmas Day games), but still included the release of hits Back in Action, Night Agent season 2, and Adolescence (top 10 series all-time in first three weeks), as well as continued benefit from season 2 of Squid Game, which premiered Dec. 26 (190 million-plus total views).”

Concluded Morris: “We forecast reported first-quarter revenue modestly ahead of guidance as we have moderated our foreign-exchange headwind assumptions and continue to anticipate that full-year advertising revenue will roughly double despite our expectation of incremental macroeconomic pressure on ad spend.”

TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge echoed that notion in his report entitled “Well positioned despite macro.” In it, he wrote: “Our first-quarter survey shows Netflix remains the top choice for living room viewing. We view Netflix as the most defensive name in our universe amid a tougher macro backdrop.”

As a result, the analyst maintained his “buy” on Netflix’s stock with a $1,150 price target, suggesting: “Investors will look for updates around Netflix’s burgeoning ad tier.” And he added that the firm increased prices in the U.S., Canada, Portugal, and Argentina in January, “which should benefit average revenue per member.”

The expert also highlighted that “we don’t expect Netflix to face [a] significant (direct) tariff impact.” Concluded Blackledge: “Given macro volatility, we view Netflix as arguably the most defensive stock in our coverage universe amid any broader slowdown given robust underlying business demand from an increasingly global content slate, with tentpole content returning in ’25 (Wednesday, Stranger Things, etc); strong value proposition, especially versus out-of-home entertainment options (with low-priced ad tier avail in 12 of its largest markets); and secular adoption of streaming video.”

In his report, Swinburne also highlighted key drivers of his positive stance. “The most recent engagement report reinforces our bullish view as Netflix leverages originals, licensed content and its global studio to drive member value,” he noted, touting “durable growth built on nearly two hours a day of engagement per member.”

Concluded Swinburne: “Our long-term view increasingly sees the global streaming market led by Netflix and YouTube – two $40 billion-plus businesses today. This increases the opportunity and necessity around advertising monetization success at Netflix, as YouTube has already built a big subscription revenue business.”

Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif-Ehrlich on Thursday also touted Netflix, on which she has a $1,175 stock price target, and its defensive benefits in the current environment. “Entering 2025, we were bullish on the media & entertainment industry driven by a potential cycle of M&A, but this thesis has not played out. Further, the industry now faces the economic uncertainty and market volatility created by the threat of tariffs,” she wrote.

“Our preferred ‘buys’ in the current environment are Netflix and Spotify. Both have strong subscription models with critical entertainment which historically performs well in a recession,” the expert explained. “Further, both have advertising businesses which are nascent (small percentage of revenue) and should be an incremental positive, not negative.”

Wedbush Securities analyst Micghael Pachter also remains bullish on Netflix with an “outperform” rating at $1,150 stock price target.