#Is Barbenheimer a Last Hurrah? Studios, Theaters Brace for Tentpole Havoc If Strikes Linger Into Fall

The extraordinary success of Barbie and Oppenheimer was a needed shot of adrenaline for Hollywood and theater owners as domestic box office revenue hit $311.1 million over the July 21-23 frame, the fourth biggest weekend of all time. Never in history has one movie opened to $100 million or more, and a second one to more than $50 million. Greta Gerwig’s Barbie strutted to a stupendous $162 million, while Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer earned an equally stunning $80.4 million, well ahead of all expectations for a three-hour biographical drama.

But will it be the last major cinematic event of 2023 if the actors and writers strikes aren’t resolved in the coming weeks and the big fall and winter tentpoles consider relocating?

The box office ecosystem is still incredibly fragile and has yet to return to pre-COVID levels of health. The domestic summer box office before Barbenheimer was down 7 percent from the same corridor in 2022, a disturbing trend. Now, after the July 21-23 weekend, it is up by a hair at least, or 1.1 percent, according to Comscore. Revenue year-to-date is running 16 percent ahead of 2022 but is still down nearly 19 percent from 2019. And summer 2023 is still down 14.4 percent from the same period in 2019.

Multiple sources tell The Hollywood Reporter that theater owners are scrambling to figure out whether the major studios are going to rearrange their fall and winter tentpoles. Actors cannot promote any film that’s from a member of the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, meaning any streamer, major legacy studio or a specialty division such as Sony Pictures Classics, Searchlight or Focus Features (which are owned by Sony, Disney and Universal, respectively).

“This is a critical moment for cinemas. They cannot survive another version of the pandemic and the loss of big movies,” says one studio source. Nor can Hollywood, for that matter. “I don’t know if people who are sitting at the negotiating table are taking this seriously enough or understanding it,” adds another top studio source. “Maybe the producers have different agendas. Maybe if you are Netflix, you aren’t concerned about the box office.”

Executives surveyed by THR don’t believe there will be any immediate moves on the part of the major studios. One exception: MGM’s Challengers, directed by Luca Guadagnino and starring Zendaya, pulled out of the Venice Film Festival and delayed its release from September to 2024 because of the actors strike, although that is arguably more of a specialty title. “The big talent-driven movies start in October and November. If one or to two or three of them start moving, there will be trouble,” says a distribution exec.

Apple’s high-profile Martin Scorsese-directed feature Killers of the Flower Moon, starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Lily Gladstone and Robert De Niro, is set to open nationwide Oct. 20 via Paramount after an initial limited release on Oct. 6. The film isn’t likely to shift, according to sources. While DiCaprio and De Niro are marquee stars whose ongoing support could boost the pic, Killers of the Flower Moon generated plenty of press around its glitzy, high-profile world premiere at May’s Cannes Film Festival, where Scorsese and the cast walked the world’s most famous red carpet. And, weeks before, DiCaprio turned up at CinemaCon in Las Vegas, to host a conversation with Scorsese before thousands of theater owners. (Both Apple and Amazon, unlike Netflix, are experimenting with traditional theatrical releases. Apple also has Ridley Scott’s epic Napoleon , starring Joaquin Phoenix, coming out via Sony on Nov 22.)

Movies opening in November and December face far more of a challenge. If the SAG-AFTRA strike continues in particular, some movies might not be able to finish if there is last-minute voiceover work needed, or minor reshoots. And then there is the challenge of stars not being able to do any promotion.

Warner Bros. — home of Barbie — has a slew of big event pics waiting in the wings. Insiders say no decision has been made on the status of Legendary’s early November tentpole Dune: Part Two, whose star-packed cast includes Timothee Chalamet, Zendaya, Austin, and dispute a report saying Dune 2 and December’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom and The Color Purple are on the bubble (Warners also has Christmas pic Wonka, which likewise stars Chalamet). But if the no resolution is in sight regarding the strikes, that could change. One source close to Dune 2 says there is keen interest in having its star-studded cast do publicity.

Actors union SAG-AFTRA is giving waivers to certain independent movies being distributed by non-AMPTP members, though that doesn’t help the likes of Sony Classics, or Searchlight or Focus Features. Searchlight announced Tuesday it is relocating the limited release of upcoming Venice Film Festival entry Poor Things from September to December, while Focus is mulling pushing back Drive-Away Dolls from director Ethan Coen (currently it has a September limited release date).

“There is so much emotion still out there, I don’t think there is going to be an imminent resolution to the strikes,” says a third studio executive, adding that every single cinema owners is concerned. “In my opinion, it will take actors who are want awards. They could become more vocal about getting a deal done.”

For exhibitors, the glory that is Barbenheimer could fade away if the big fall and winter tentpoles that have the best chance of turning into four-quadrant cinematic events are pushed. Adds Comscore’s Paul Dergarbedian, “Barbenheimer put a spotlight on the essential nature of the creatives both behind and in front of the camera to not only write the scripts and perform on screen, but also to actively promote their films.”

A marketing campaign starts in earnest two months before a film hits theaters so, again, there is still time before the tentpole domino game begins all over again.

“I don’t think there’s any interest in moving these big movies. If you move them all to next year, they are going to cannibalize one another,” says the third studio executive. “This is another version of what happened to us during a viral pandemic.”

This story first appeared in the July 26 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.