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#Final caucus rankings for Trump, Haley, DeSantis, Ramaswamy

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Donald Trump is the first choice of 48% of likely Republican caucusgoers, while former United Nations Ambassador Haley is at 20% and Florida Gov. DeSantis drops to 16%

Donald Trump retains a commanding lead in the final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll before Monday’s caucuses, with Nikki Haley sliding past Ron DeSantis into second place.

The former president is the first choice of 48% of likely Republican caucusgoers, while former United Nations Ambassador Haley is at 20% and Florida Gov. DeSantis drops to 16%. No other candidate reaches double digits.

The poll of 705 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Jan. 7-12 by Selzer & Co. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

More: Iowa Poll shows Nikki Haley leads Ron DeSantis in Iowa Caucuses. Donald Trump far ahead

Here’s a look at how all six Republican presidential candidates perform in the last poll before the Iowa Caucuses and how that compares with their support from earlier in the campaign cycle.

Donald Trump

Trump’s support slips 3 percentage points since the last Iowa Poll in December, but he maintains a 28-percentage point lead over his nearest rival, Haley, earning the support of 48% of likely Republican caucusgoers.

Among first-time caucusgoers, Trump’s lead is larger — 56% to Haley’s 14% and DeSantis’ 13%. He also leads his opponents in every demographic group.

More than four out of five of Trump’s supporters (82%) say their mind is made up, while just 18% say they could still be persuaded to support someone else.

Trump’s supporters also display a high degree of enthusiasm about his candidacy. Nearly half (49%) say they are “extremely enthusiastic” about him, while another 39% say they are very enthusiastic, 11% say they are mildly enthusiastic and 0% say they are not that enthusiastic.

Here’s how his support in Iowa has changed over the course of the campaign.

January: 48% say Trump is their first choice.
December: 51% said he was their first choice.
October: 43% said he was their first choice.
August: 42% said he was their first choice.

Trump retains the largest “footprint” of any candidate running, calculated by adding those who say he is either their first choice, their second choice or someone they are actively considering.

January: 67% say they are considering Trump in some way.
December: 76% said they were considering him in some way.
October: 67% said they were considering him in some way.
August: 63% said they were considering him in some way.

Trump’s favorability among likely Republican caucusgoers has dropped 3 percentage points from its record high in December, but the portion of caucusgoers who viewhim favorably remains higher than for any other candidate by a double-digit margin.

January: 69% favorable, 29% unfavorable, 2% not sure.
December: 72% favorable, 28% unfavorable, 1% not sure.
October: 66% favorable, 32% unfavorable, 1% not sure.
August: 65% favorable, 33% unfavorable, 2% not sure.

Nikki Haley

Haley has overtaken DeSantis for the first time in the Iowa Poll and is now the first choice of 20% of likely Republican caucusgoers, up from 16% in December. That puts her in second place, 28 percentage points behind Trump.

Just 9% of Haley’s supporters say they are extremely enthusiastic about her candidacy, down from 21% in December, while another 30% say they are very enthusiastic. In the new poll, nearly half of Haley supporters say they are mildly enthusiastic (49%) and 12% say they are not that enthusiastic. Among Trump, DeSantis and Haley, her dougle-digit “not that enthusiastic” finding is the highest for any Iowa Poll this caucus cycle.

Sixty-three percent of Haley supporters say their mind is made up, while 37% say they could still be persuaded to support someone else.

Half of Haley’s supporters describe themselves either as political independents (39%) or Democrats (11%).

She wins 33% of political independents overall, up 10 percentage points since December, but she still trails Trump, who wins 37% of independents.

January: 20% say Haley is their first choice.
December: 16% said she was their first choice.
October: 16% said she was their first choice.
August: 6% said she was their first choice.

Haley’s footprint has dropped below 50% for the first time since August, showing some likely GOP caucusgoers have ruled her out as they make up their minds about which candidate to support.

January: 46% say they are considering Haley in some way.
December: 52% said they were considering her in some way.
October: 54% said they were considering her in some way.
August: 40% said they were considering her in some way.

Haley has seen her favorability among likely Republican caucusgoers decline by 11 percentage points since the December Iowa Poll, while she’s seen a 15-percentage point increase in those who say they view her unfavorably.

January: 48% favorable, 46% unfavorable, 6% not sure.
December: 59% favorable, 31% unfavorable, 10% not sure.
October: 59% favorable, 29% unfavorable, 13% not sure.
August: 53% favorable, 26% unfavorable, 21% not sure.

Ron DeSantis

DeSantis has lost ground since the December Iowa Poll. He now sits in third place as the top choice of 16% of likely Republican caucusgoers, down from 19% in December.

Enthusiasm for his candidacy has recovered a bit since December. Now, 23% say they are extremely enthusiastic, up 7%, while 39% say they are very enthusiastic, 33% say they are mildly enthusiastic and 5% say they are not that enthusiastic.

Among DeSantis’ supporters, 64% say their mind is made up, while 35% say they could still be persuaded to support someone else.

January: 16% say DeSantis is their first choice.
December: 19% said he was their first choice.
October: 16% said he was their first choice.
August: 19% said he was their first choice.

DeSantis’ footprint has fallen to 53% of likely Republican caucusgoers in the latest poll, down from 67% in December, as more caucusgoers make up their minds about which candidate to support.

January: 53% say they are considering DeSantis in some way.
December: 67% said they were considering him in some way.
October: 67% said they were considering him in some way.
August: 61% said they were considering him in some way.

DeSantis has seen his favorability drop by 8 percentage points since December, while the percentage of caucusgoers who view him unfavorably has risen by 7 percentage points.

January: 58% favorable, 36% unfavorable, 6% not sure.
December: 66% favorable, 29% unfavorable, 5% not sure.
October: 69% favorable, 26% unfavorable, 5% not sure.
August: 66% favorable, 29% unfavorable, 5% not sure.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Biotech entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy is the first choice of 8% of likely Republican caucusgoers — his best showing in an Iowa Poll this campaign cycle.

January: 8% say Ramaswamy is their first choice.
December: 5% said he was their first choice.
October: 4% said he was their first choice.
August: 4% said he was their first choice.

Ramaswamy has increased his footprint by4 percentage points since December to include 42% of likely GOP caucusgoers.

January: 42% say they are considering Ramaswamy in some way.
December: 38% said they were considering him in some way.
October: 32% said they were considering him in some way.
August: 34% said they were considering him in some way.

The percentage of likely caucusgoers who view Ramaswamy favorably has increased by 6 percentage points since December while the percentage who view him unfavorably has remained steady.

January: 52% favorable, 36% unfavorable, 13% not sure.
December: 46% favorable, 36% unfavorable, 18% not sure.
October: 43% favorable, 37% unfavorable, 20% not sure.
August: 38% favorable, 20% unfavorable, 41% not sure.

Ryan Binkley

After registering at 0% in the last three Iowa Polls, Texas businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley is now the top choice of 1% of likely Republican caucusgoers.

January: 1% say Binkley is their first choice.
December: 0% said he was their first choice.
October: 0% said he was their first choice.
August: 0% said he was their first choice.

Binkley’s footprint has ticked up to 8% of likely Republican caucusgoers.

January: 8% say they are considering Binkley in some way.
December: 6% said they were considering him in some way.
October: 6% said they were considering him in some way.

August: 7% said they were considering him in some way.

Binkley continues to be viewed more unfavorably than favorably, with more than a 2-to-1 margin, while more than half of likely caucusgoers don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.

January: 13% favorable, 35% unfavorable, 52% not sure.
December: 11% favorable, 21% unfavorable, 68% not sure.
October: 13% favorable, 28% unfavorable, 59% not sure.
August: 12% favorable, 21% unfavorable, 68% not sure.

Asa Hutchinson

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson remains at 1% in the latest Iowa Poll.

January: 1% say Hutchinson is their first choice.
December: 1% said he was their first choice.
October: 1% said he was their first choice.
August: 0% said he was their first choice.

Hutchinson’s overall footprint remains in the single digits, with fewer than one in 10 likely GOP caucusgoers saying they are considering him.

January: 6% say they are considering Hutchinson in some way.
December: 8% said they were considering him in some way.
October: 9% said they were considering him in some way.
August: 9% said they were considering him in some way.

Hutchinson’s favorability has fallen over the course of the campaign. Now, he is viewed more unfavorably than favorably by more than a 4-to-1 margin.

January: 11% favorable, 49% unfavorable, 40% not sure.
December: 19% favorable, 41% unfavorable, 40% not sure.

October: 17% favorable, 45% unfavorable, 37% not sure.
August: 20% favorable, 32% unfavorable, 48% not sure.

Stephen Gruber-Miller covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. He can be reached by email at [email protected] or by phone at 515-284-8169. Follow him on Twitter at @sgrubermiller.

About the Iowa Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Jan. 7-12, 2024, for The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 705 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 4,170 randomly selected voters from the Iowa Secretary of State’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect their proportions among voters in the list.

Questions based on the sample of 705 voters likely to attend the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom is prohibited.

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