The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians will meet in a winner-take-all Game 5 in the Bronx on Monday night. Jameson Taillon will start for the Yankees, while Aaron Civale is slated to be the opener for the Guardians, with Shane Bieber, Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak and Emannuel Clase behind him. 

Despite the fact that the Guardians have the superior and more rested bullpen, the Yankees are a -164 favorite in Game 5. The Over/Under is currently sitting at 7.5 runs, with the under juiced to -120.

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Guardians vs. Yankees ALDS Game 5 prediction

The last time we saw Jameson Taillon in this series, he took a hard-luck loss in Game 2. The 30-year-old veteran entered out of the bullpen in the 10th inning and gave up a bloop double to Jose Ramirez, who moved to third on an error. The next batter, Oscar Gonzalez, would follow suit with a softly hit single, and the rest is history. 

Given the situation and how the runs were scored, it’s best to just draw a line through that appearance from Taillon and look at the bigger picture. The 30-year-old gave the Yankees about what you’d expect out of a mid-rotation starter this season. Taillon pitched to a 3.91 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 177.1 innings of work, and his expected indicators (3.79 xFIP, 4.20 xERA) suggest his statline is a pretty fair representation of how he pitched. 

In all likelihood, Taillon will be on a very short leash and could be taken out after he works through the lineup for the first time. Taillon logged a 3.24 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and a 22.6% strikeout rate for the first time through the order this season (72.1 innings).

The likely plan for the Yankees is that Taillon will go through the order once as long as he’s in control. From there, Aaron Boone will probably tap Nestor Cortes to eat up some of the middle innings. It’s no use trying to project things after that. Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Lou Trivino are likely going to be counted on for some big outs in the latter stages of the contest. 

Civale hasn’t pitched at all in the postseason, and we haven’t seen him take the mound since Oct. 5 against the Royals. Whether the long layoff could work against him is hard to project, but asking a pitcher to shake off the rust against the top of the Yankee lineup is a tough ask. Civale’s numbers the first time through the order are encouraging, however, as the 27-year-old posted a 2.98 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and a 28.4% strikeout rate in 45 1/3 innings of work. Whether Civale can replicate those numbers against this lineup remains to be seen, however.

Betting on Baseball?

The Guardians deliberately seemed to protect their best bullpen arms in Game 4, using Eli Morgan, Cody Morris, and Zach Plesac behind Cal Quantrill. That means we can be pretty certain that Stephan, Karinchak, and Clase will play big roles in this game. Clase went 2 1/3 innings in the win on Friday, so we know that Terry Francona has no qualms with letting him get as many outs as he deems necessary.

Betting the under in a game featuring the Yankees offense is certainly a bit daunting, but this one does project to be a low-scoring, tight contest. Cleveland’s bullpen is terrific, and Francona has his best arms ready and rested, while the Guardians’ offense doesn’t typically bust games open. The total is currently sitting at 7.5 but could come down to 7 before the first pitch, so be sure to shop around for the best number. 

Additionally, this game sets up well for a live bet on the under should one of the teams get on the board early. Both managers will have their starters on very short leashes and will be able to play the matchups from first pitch until the last out. 

The pick: Under 7.5 -120 (BetMGM)