Our college football betting writer offers his best betting picks and predictions for the SEC matchup between No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 11 Ole Miss scheduled for Saturday at Oxford, Miss., at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

Alabama is on the verge of falling out of contention for a College Football Playoff spot, while Ole Miss needs to pull off an upset to have any chance of making a late run.

Alabama vs. Ole Miss picks

• Ole Miss to cover +12 spread @ -117 via Caesars Sportsbook
• Over 64.5 total points to be scored @ -117 via Caesars Sportsbook
• Quinshon Judkins to rush for more than 94.5 yards @ -117 via Caesars Sportsbook

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Alabama vs. Ole Miss prediction and analysis

Nick Saban hasn’t overseen a three-loss campaign since 2010 — his third season with the Crimson Tide — and former assistant Lane Kiffin would love to be the coach that hangs No. 3 on him.

Ole Miss to cover +12

The Crimson Tide took a major blow to the chin last week when it lost 32-31 in overtime to LSU. The stunning setback makes it unlikely that third-place Alabama can reach the SEC title game.

It would be nearly impossible for Alabama to reach the playoff if it doesn’t win the SEC championship by beating top-ranked Georgia. But those folks saying Saban’s dynasty is over may want to see where things stand 12 months from now.

Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young is faring well with 2,234 yards, 19 touchdowns and four interceptions. But he completed just 49 percent of his throws (25 of 51) against LSU and it appears he will not repeat as Heisman Trophy winner.

Alabama has allowed an average of 42 points in its two losses. This is a big game for Ole Miss and we see the Rebels covering the spread.

Alabama vs. Ole Miss pick: Ole Miss to cover +12 spread @ -117 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Betting on College Football?

Over 64.5 total points

The key to the Rebels beating Alabama rests on the performance of freshman running back Quinshon Judkins. He has set a school freshman rushing mark with 1,036 yards and has ran for 13 touchdowns.

Judkins rushed for a career-best 205 rushing yards in last week’s 31-28 road victory over Texas A&M. The Rebels punished the Aggies on the ground all game long and finished with 390.

So Ole Miss figures to want to establish the run and get Judkins in the flow early. It also wouldn’t hurt if quarterback Jaxson Dart can complete timely passes as well as be a factor on the ground as he had 95 rushing yards vs. Texas A&M.

The Rebels are looking to halt a six-game losing skid against the Crimson Tide. Ole Miss will be able to score some points so we see this one going over.

Alabama vs. Ole Miss pick: Over 64.5 total points scored @ -117 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Quinshon Judkins over 94.5 rushing yards

Alabama is typically sturdy against the run but that hasn’t been the case recently. The Crimson Tide have allowed over 180 yards in three of the past five games.

That makes Judkins an intriguing play despite the tradition of strong Alabama run defense — the Tide is 11th nationally in rushing defense at 104 per game. He has topped 100 yards rushing six times this season, including the last three games.

In fact, Judkins is averaging 151.7 rushing yards over the past three games. It looks like a good bet that he’ll challenge for another 100-yard outing.

Alabama vs. Ole Miss pick: Quinshon Judkins over 94.5 rushing yards @ -117 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Alabama vs. Ole Miss odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.