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#Disgusted independent voters could shake up Democrats’ rule in NY

“Disgusted independent voters could shake up Democrats’ rule in NY”

New York’s disgusted registered independent voters could cause a “political earthquake” in elections in the state this fall — including the governor’s race, say sources citing data from a recent Siena College survey.

Nearly a quarter of the 13 million voters in the state — almost 3 million, or 23% — are registered as not being affiliated with any political party.

That’s slightly more than the state’s 2.84 million registered Republicans, although Democrats still have a huge enrollment advantage. There are 6.47 million registered Dems, or about one out of every two voters, in New York, according to the state Board of Elections.

The recent survey showed that given the number of New York independents — and what they had to say about the state of the state — incumbents including Gov. Kathy Hochul could be in trouble.

According to the poll, 62% of independents believe that the state is on the wrong track.

Meanwhile, the Democratic-run state Senate was viewed favorably by just 26% of those registered independents surveyed, and the Democrat-controlled Assembly didn’t fare much better, with 34% of polled independents considering it favorably. 

NYPD investigate shooting this morning at 283 E 4st., mhtn.
Over the last few months, crime across New York City has soared.
Robert Miller

Making matters worse is the fact that moderate and conservative Democrats don’t always vote for their party candidate amid spikes in violent crime, which are a recent scourge again, and quality-of-life issues post-pandemic.

“There could be a political earthquake in New York,” veteran political consultant Hank Sheinkopf predicted.

“The Republicans have a path to victory,” he said. “Crime is the most important issue among voters across the state. For independent voters, crime and government performance matters. The question is can Republicans form an alliance and get independents to turn out.”

The polled independents were particularly negative about Democrat Hochul’s job performance.

NYS governor Kathy Hochul speaks at an event.
Gov. Kathy Hochul polled poorly among surveyed independents.
Paul Martinka

About two-thirds of independents rated her gubernatorial record to date as fair or poor. Hochul took over the state’s top political post in August 2021, after former Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned amid a sex-harassment scandal.

On specific issues,  74% of the independents rated Hochul fair or poor on fighting crime, 72% fair or poor on her handling the economy, 73% fair or poor over restoring trust in government, 71% fair on poor for providing leadership, and 61% fair or poor on COVID-19 recovery.

If Hochul is the Democratic Party nominee, 30% of the independents said they would back her, while 48% said they would prefer someone else.

Only 38% of the group looked at Hochul favorably, 37% unfavorably, and the rest undecided.

A man examines his ballot paper before entering the voting booth at the polling station set up in the gymnasium at Robert Fullerton School for the 2014.
Just 30% of independents said they would back Hochul if she becomes the Democratic Party nominee.
Stefan Jeremiah

Siena College pollster Steve Greenberg said it’s a tough environment for incumbents, and in New York that mainly means Democrats, who control all levels of state government and two-thirds of the congressional delegation.

He noted the recent poll found that the percentage of voters saying New York has been on the wrong track was at its highest since 2010. Fifty-two percent said New York is on the wrong track in the recent survey, and only 36 percent said it’s heading in the right direction.

“Voters generally are not in a good mood. All candidates — particularly Democrats — could be in a world of hurt,” Greenberg said.

U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin speaks to delegates and assembled party officials at the 2022 NYGOP Convention.
Rep Lee Zeldin is the presumed Republican nominee for governor.
AP/John Minchillo

Hochul, the Democratic Party’s presumptive designee, is the heavy favorite to win her primary battle against two major rivals: Long Rep. Tom Suozzi, running to her right as the law-and-order candidate, and city Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, running to her left.

The GOP candidates are Long Island Rep. Lee Zeldin, the presumptive designee, former Trump White House aide Andrew Giuliani, ex-Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino and businessman Harry Wilson.

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