#Current radiologist shortage projected to persist to 2055

The current radiologist shortage is projected to persist, and projected imaging utilization is projected to continue increasing through 2055, according to two studies published in the February issue of the Journal of the American College of Radiology.

Eric W. Christensen, Ph.D., from the Harvey L. Neiman Health Policy Institute in Reston, Virginia, and colleagues projected the future radiologist workforce through 2055. The researchers found that 37,482 radiologists were enrolled to provide care to Medicare patients in 2023.

Assuming residency positions do not increase after 2024, the projected number of radiologists in 2055 will be 25.7 percent higher than in 2023 (47,119 radiologists). If positions do increase, the projection is 40.3 percent higher (52,591 radiologists) in 2055.

In a second study, Christensen and colleagues projected imaging utilization through 2055. The analyses included 348,214,053 insured individuals covering those with Medicare fee-for-service, Medicare Advantage, Medicaid, and commercial insurance.

The researchers found that the projected imaging utilization will be 16.9 to 26.9 percent higher in 2055 versus 2023, assuming no continuation of recent utilization trends, with the range reflecting differences by modality. The rate is 5.6 percent less to 45.2 percent more if recent utilization trends continue through 2030.

Population growth and population aging account for 73 to 88 percent and 12 to 27 percent, respectively, of utilization increases across modalities. There was a difference seen in average utilization by insurance type.

“Both the projected increase in the number of older individuals and the relative aging of the U.S. population contribute substantially to the projected increased future imaging demand,” Christensen said in a statement.

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