Our NFL betting writer offers best betting picks and predictions for Sunday’s matchup between the Vikings and Cowboys in Minneapolis, scheduled to air live Sunday on FOX at 4:25 p.m. ET.

The Vikings are a true rarity — 8-1, at home and coming off of a landmark win at Buffalo — as underdogs in their own building, a testament to the blind loyalty to “America’s Team.” The Cowboys are in the reverse situation having loss to the lowly Packers in Green Bay last week in the middle of a schedule with a rising degree of difficulty.

Vikings vs. Cowboys picks

Risk Free First Bet up to $1,000 with NPBONUS

New customers only. Must be 21+. AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. (Welcome Offer not available in NY & PA) Full T&C apply.

First bet up To $1,250 On Caesars

New users only, 21 or older. NY, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, MI, NV, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. Full T&Cs apply.

No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000

21+. New customers only. AZ, CT, IA, IL, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, WV, WY only. T&C apply

Vikings vs. Cowboys predictions and analysis

Dallas has won the past two meetings with the Vikings and losing last week in Green Bay pushes the Cowboys’ urgency a tick or three higher in the division and conference push for playoff positioning. A loss at Minnesota with the NY Giants in town Thursday afternoon could spell tailspin for Big D.

The Vikings are riding high as the co-favorites in the NFC along with the Eagles, who lost to the Commanders on Monday night. WR Justin Jefferson was slowed this week with a toe injury but plans to be part of the action again Sunday. He already has 20 career 100-yard games before completing his third NFL season.

Vikings cover +1.5

Dallas has been hit for an average of 30 points in the past two games, including 31 to the Packers last week to drop to 6-3 on the year. The defense is showing signs of breaking down. DE Demarcus Lawrence has foot and knee injuries and teams are committing extra blocks to keep Micah Parsons at bay.

The equalizer for the Vikings has been running back Dalvin Cook, averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season with defenses in a bind of whether to commit help to slowing all-world WR Justin Jefferson or take their chances tackling Cook with six or seven in the box.

Until the Cowboys show more cohesion offensively and Dak Prescott starts to look the part, a road test against the NFC’s best is out of reach

Vikings vs. Cowboy pick: Vikings to cover +1.5 at -110 with Caesars Sportsbook

Kirk Cousins over 0.5 interceptions

It’s not going to be primetime Kirk, but definitely Cousins after dark (thank you, daylight savings time) on Sunday. He was just fine at Buffalo last week, mind you, with a seventh consecutive win despite some questionable decisions. Cousins has eight interceptions this season but only one at home.

Where he’s found trouble is when the Vikings are playing without the lead and aggressive thinking overtakes logical progressions through his reads. The Cowboys aim to confuse and make Cousins move out of the pocket with the occasional blitz and surprise coverage. A secondary that can catch it — seven picks this season — will add to that total Sunday.

Vikings vs. Cowboys pick: Kirk Cousins over 0.5 INTs @ -119 at Caesars Sportsbook

Betting on the NFL?

Tony Pollard to score a touchdown

Even if Ezekiel Elliott returns from a knee injury, there are 10-15 touches reserved for Pollard, a total that could jump if Elliott is ineffective.

Lines reflect a higher usage rate projected for Elliott, but that would also play into the hands of Pollard supporters. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry with six touchdowns in 2022, mostly as a niche back.

The Vikings allow 118.3 rushing yards per game and allowed 10 rushing touchdowns in their first nine games. A score Sunday gives Pollard touchdowns in three straight games.

Vikings vs. Cowboys pick: Cowboys RB Tony Pollard to score TD @ +170 at Caesars Sportsbook

Vikings vs. Cowboys odds