#Big 12 football betting angles: Favorites, live underdog

The VSiN college football analyst and longtime Gold Sheet handicapper looks at some betting angles for the 2021 Big 12 season.

Favorites: Oklahoma and Iowa State

If we get a rematch of last year’s conference title game between the Sooners and the Cyclones, it would come as no surprise. Oklahoma certainly belongs. By the end of last season, the Sooners arguably were performing at a playoff-caliber level, finishing with an eight-game winning streak after destroying Florida in the Cotton Bowl. Along the way, Spencer Rattler established himself as the next in Lincoln Riley’s recent assembly line of quarterbacks, after NFL starters Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts. The return of slashing RB Kennedy Brooks after last fall’s opt-out should provide the necessary balance.

Matt Campbell’s team in Ames earns the vote to make the strongest run at the Sooners, especially with QB Brock Purdy resisting the temptation to jump into the NFL draft and most of the Big 12’s best defense returning. Now, how soon might the NFL come calling for Riley and Campbell?

Live ’dog: Texas Tech

Feeling a bit of heat at Texas Tech, third-year coach Matt Wells needs a fast upgrade after a pair of sub-.500 seasons. Mindful of his plight, Wells shook the jar in the offseason, bringing respected offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie back from TCU for another tour of duty in Lubbock and tasking him to reignite an offense that has lost some of its zip since the Kliff Kingsbury era.

Transfer Tyler Shough, who won a Pac-12 title with Oregon a year ago, offers the promise of an upgrade at quarterback. But the transfer theme is really playing out on the defensive side, where several potential starters have arrived via the portal. With the entire front seven back, Tech should continue its progress under defensive coordinator Keith Patterson from the roadkill status of the Kingsbury years. Having hit the portal hard and expecting a QB upgrade from Shough, Wells will give it a go this fall and not worry about building for 2022, knowing that a bowl bid might be needed to save his job.

Dead money: Baylor

While Kansas might seem the obvious choice, we suspect the Jayhawks might be so discounted that they could provide some value. Rather, we suspect Baylor has yet to hit bottom after dropping hard and fast following Matt Rhule’s departure to the NFL.

Rhule knew when to get out of Waco. Replacement Dave Aranda, over from Ed Orgeron’s LSU staff, struggled mightily in a debut season disrupted by COVID-19. The drop from 2019 was precipitous, and now multiyear starting QB Charlie Brewer, the soul of the offense, has transferred to Utah. As with many career assistants, the jury remains very much out on Aranda, who wouldn’t be the first high-profile coordinator to fail in the jump to the No. 1 role.