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# Betting markets see Biden win as increasingly likely, while Trump struggles with aid issue

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Betting markets see Biden win as increasingly likely, while Trump struggles with aid issue

President returns to Oval Office for first time since being hospitalized

The White House is seen in the background in a photo this week.


AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

With 27 days to go till the election, President Donald Trump was working to clarify his stance on additional coronavirus relief, as he and Democratic challenger Joe Biden prepared to watch their running mates debate on Wednesday night.

Betting markets tracked by RealClearPolitics were giving Biden a 63.4% chance of winning the White House race vs. Trump’s 36.0% , down just slightly from a day ago, when the former vice president posted his best-ever figure for this metric — a 64.0% chance vs. the president’s 35.2%.

Data point

Polling avg. in top swing states

Biden +4.4 as of Wednesday vs. Biden +3.6 a week ago

National polling avg.

Biden +9.4 as of Wednesday vs. Biden +6.6 a week ago

Betting markets

Biden 63.4%, Trump 36.0% as of Wednesday vs. Biden 59.8%, Trump 40.8% a week ago

S&P 500
SPX,
+1.74%
+1.4% Wednesday, -0.6% in 1 month

CBOE Volatility Index
VIX,
-4.81%
-4.6% Wednesday, -8.6% in 1 month

Trump on Wednesday returned to the Oval Office for the first time since he was hospitalized with COVID-19, and was active on Twitter. The president on Tuesday night said he supported additional targeted aid for airlines 
JETS,
+2.79%
and small businesses, as well as another round of stimulus checks for “our great people,” with that move coming after he had tweeted on Wednesday afternoon that he was ending negotiations on a broad relief package.

But analysts said it wasn’t likely that a divided Washington would produce even targeted coronavirus aid before the Nov. 3 election, and they said the president’s initial decision to end talks was “ill-advised” politically as he aims for re-election.

Polling average for top swing states

Source: RealClearPolitics

Biden was slated to take part in fundraising events on Wednesday.

A White House spokesman said Trump was being briefed on stimulus talks and a hurricane heading toward the Gulf Coast. The White House hasn’t said if the president is wearing a mask while in the Oval Office, or while around others.

Ahead of the vice-presidential debate, one Saint Louis University expert on the vice presidency, Joel Goldstein, told MarketWatch that “because of Trump’s recent COVID diagnosis and because of the advanced ages of the candidates, it’s possible that the vice presidential debate could take on a larger importance in terms of people’s attention.” Vice President Mike Pence and Democratic Sen. Kamala Harris of California are slated to debate at 9 p.m. Eastern Time.

U.S. stocks
SPX,
+1.74%

DJIA,
+1.91%

COMP,
+1.88%
finished sharply higher Wednesday, after closing with losses on Tuesday.

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