#Betting against Yankees in this instance is the value play

The Yankees cruised through the 2019 regular season, winning the AL East and posting the third-best record in baseball at 103-59. Only the Astros (107-55) and Dodgers (106-56) won more games. Unfortunately, the postseason wasn’t as kind. New York took care of business in the ALDS, sweeping the Twins in three games, but then ran into a Houston buzz saw and lost to the Astros in the ALCS in six games.

This is one of the most successful and iconic franchises in major sports, winning an MLB-record 27 World Series. However, the Yankees have been in a title drought as of late. They haven’t brought a championship home to The Bronx since 2009. For a team with such a rich pedigree and deep pockets, a decade without a ring is unacceptable.

In an attempt to win No. 28, the Yankees signed the biggest name on the free-agent market, inking former Houston ace Gerrit Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA in 2019) to a massive nine-year, $324 million contract.

When it comes to betting offseason futures, the public always gravitates toward successful big-name teams and historic franchises with star players. With the addition of Cole, along with a loaded starting lineup and deep bullpen, New York fits this mold perfectly.

At BetMGM, the Yankees are the favorite to win the AL East (-323) as well as the American League ( 170). New York has the second-best World Series odds at 400 (4/1). Only the Dodgers are higher ( 350, or 7/2).

Oddsmakers know the public is biased toward betting big favorites like the Yankees so they often shade the lines toward them. This forces bettors to take overpriced numbers, hence the hefty division price and small payout to win the pennant.

The future bet providing the most value appears to be New York’s season win total, but not in the way you would expect.

The Yankees’ Over/Under regular season wins is set at 37.5, tied with the Dodgers for the most in baseball. This translates to a 101.3-win season based on a 162-game schedule. After winning 103 games last season and now adding Cole, this seems very doable.

But sharps disagree.

The juice on the Over 37.5 wins is 105 and the Under is -125. This means the oddsmakers are “juicing up” the Under. In other words, despite public bettors hammering the Yankees Over, sharp money from respected bettors has come in on the Under, creating house liability and a more expensive price on the Under. By offering 105 juice on the Over, the house is tempting bettors to take the plus-money payout. But remember: If it looks too good to be true, it almost always is.

FanGraphs, one of the most respected sites for advanced baseball analytics, is projecting the Yankees to go 34-26. This indicates a 3.5-game actionable discrepancy to the under.

While New York is expected to be a World Series contender, the Under win total is a classic buy-low, sell-high contrarian opportunity for savvy, value-minded bettors, particularly in a short season full of variance and unpredictability.