#Best matchup bets at Zurich Classic featuring Brown-Kisner
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“Best matchup bets at Zurich Classic featuring Brown-Kisner”
Less than 24 hours separate golf bettors from the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and I have one final set of picks to share.
We’ve already broken down our three derivative selections for the tournament, but now it’s time to focus on the matchups. Not as many matchups stood out to me this weekend, but I still managed to find two where bettors are getting good value.
So before the field tees off at TPC Louisiana, here are my favorite matchup bets for the tournament.
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Best Bet #1 – Joaquin Niemann/Mito Pereira (-110) over Harold Varner III/Bubba Watson
I’m going against course history with this matchup as Niemann and Pereira rate out better in my statistical model.
Watson and Varner III are making their first appearance in this event as a team — Watson recorded a T8 finish with Scottie Scheffler at the 2021 Zurich Classic, Varner III missed the cut alongside Branden Grace — while Niemann and Pereira are making their first appearance overall in the event.
However, Niemann rates out very well in my model as an individual. He’s fifth overall in the 36-round model and is 20th or better in the field in four of six statistical categories. Additionally, he’s second overall in my 24-round model and ranks 20th or better in five of six statistical categories in that specific model.
Even though Pereira doesn’t rate out particularly high in my model (he’s 59th individually in the 24-round model and 58th in my 36-round model), he still rates out above both Watson and Varner III in the 24-round. model.
But the biggest concern of mine with the Varner III-Watson pairing? Neither has proved very good in the SG: approach category. Both rank outside the top-110 in that category. Although Pereira is an unimpressive 97th in that category, Niemann more than makes up for that with his seventh-place ranking in the field for SG: approach across his last 36 rounds.
All those trends lead me to believe Niemann and Pereira should be a much larger favorite, so I’m happy to take a shot at a virtual pick ’em.
Best Bet #2 – Scott Brown/Kevin Kisner (-102) over Sahith Theegala/Beau Hossler
I’m sorry, but how is this team an underdog in this matchup?
Although Brown and Kisner missed the cut in 2021, they have a very good historical record at this event. They posted a T5 finish in 2019 after recording a T15 in the 2018 version. Additionally, in the inaugural version of this type of event (2017), Brown and Kisner finished second after losing in a playoff to eventual winners Jonas Blixt and Cameron Smith.
As for Hossler and Theegala, they have a combined one year of experience at TPC Louisiana. Theegala has never made an appearance at the Zurich Classic while Hossler missed the cut here alongside partner Tom Hoge in 2021.
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Although none of these players rate particularly highly in any of my models — all four are 90th or worse in the field individually in my 50-round model and 88th or worse in the 36-round model — I believe there’s something to be said about Brown and Kisner’s record here.
Plus, there are some positives to consider from the model. Both Brown and Kisner are top-70 individually in birdies or better gained across the last 24 rounds while Kisner is a top-50 player in terms of SG: Par 4’s (350-400 yards).
For those reasons, I would make Brown and Kisner favorites in this matchup when you factor in recent results and am happy to bet this and almost even money.
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