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# Another COVID-19 victim: globalization

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Another COVID-19 victim: globalization

The Chinese national flag stands at half staff in Tiananmen Square during a three minute national memorial to commemorate people who died in the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak.


Leo ramirez/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

It’s well-known that the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated technological innovations, catapulting remote offices, medical visits and education into the commonplace. Less discussed but just as important is the impact it is likely to have on globalization.

Globalization was faltering even before the pandemic, perhaps even before the recent incarnation of the U.S.-China trade war, notes Neil Shearing, Capital Economics’ chief economist, in an analysis out Monday.

“Nonetheless, history is likely to judge this as the point
at which the wave of globalization that has reshaped the world economy over the
past three decades began to retreat,” he writes.

While “globalization” is a big term, covering the entire world, its rise and fall center on the globe’s two major superpowers.: China and the U.S.

And COVID-19 has accelerated its retreat. “Mainstream views toward China have become more hawkish,” Shearing writes, “in part due to its early failure to contain the virus but also because of its behavior since.”

Also not sitting well with the rest of the world: China’s priorities in stimulating its economy through the COVID downturn are helping China, not the rest of the world. As Shearing explained earlier in the month, “the policy response by Beijing has so far followed the usual playbook — leaning on state-owned banks to lend, instructing state-owned firms to invest and boosting infrastructure spending. As a result, the recovery has been credit-fueled and investment-led and will ultimately exacerbate the structural problems at the heart of China’s economy.”

Meanwhile, China is exporting more — “everything from PPE to webcams,” Shearing wrote — and importing less.

It’s no crime for a country to prioritize its own growth over boosting the rest of the world, of course — but global trading and economic patterns have long depended on the Chinese “locomotive.” If China isn’t bolstering the rest of the world, that means other nations and trading partners will need to make big changes.

Another result of the distrust that’s built up toward the Chinese government is ripple effects through technology and security policy, including bans on Huawei, TikTok and WeChat. In an earlier analysis, Shearing explained how this so-called “digital nationalism” could be dangerous.

Read: Judge blocks Trump administration’s ban against TikTok from going into effect

In fact, a distrustful world, driven farther apart rather than closer together, could have serious implications, from disrupted payment systems to crackdowns on foreign investment and less information-sharing. At a moment of global crisis, that may be the last thing we need.

Read next: The world is de-globalizing. Here’s what it may mean for investors.

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