Coming off a Mexico Open tournament where we had no previous analytical data from the world’s best players on that host venue, it will feel like a wealth of information at our disposal for this week’s Wells Fargo Championship.

With Quail Hollow playing host to this year’s Presidents Cup, the event is taking a one-year detour to TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, a course that offers at least a modicum of familiarity.

Formerly known as TPC Avenel, this track played host to the Quicken Loans National in 2017 and 2018. Prior to that, it held Korn Ferry Tour events in 2012 and 2013, and a senior major championship in 2010. It also hosted the PGA Tour’s Kemper Open/FBR Capital Open/Booz Allen Classic from 1987 to 2004, then again in 2006 for a final time.

We can debate how helpful that previous intel will be for a course that has changed over the years, but here’s what we do know: At 7,160 yards, it ranks on the short end of the PGA Tour host spectrum, though it is a par-70, with only two par-5 holes on the course.

Played on bentgrass greens, this is as “Northeast” as we’ll get until the U.S. Open/Travelers Championship double next month.

Oh — and good luck trying to predict a score this week. In 2017, Kyle Stanley won a playoff after finishing at 7-under. The next year, the winning total was 21-under, though Francesco Molinari blitzed the field, winning by eight.

If there’s a common bond, it’s that at their best, Stanley and Molinari were two deadly accurate iron players who could carve up a course.

With that in mind, let’s get to this week’s plays, led by a world-class ball-striker who’s trending in the right direction.

Outright Winner

Corey Conners (20/1): I’ll get this out of the way right off the bat: I don’t love the number. No, that’s not quite right. I hate it. Abhor it. Wish it was bigger, needed it to be bigger.

In a field with a half-dozen players ranked inside the top 26 of the Official World Golf Ranking, taking the guy ranked 31st who’s priced ahead of all of them except one feels overvalued — especially considering that player owns just one career victory.

All of this leads to the great existential crisis that golf bettors face on a regular basis: Should I simply bet the player whom I most like to win the tournament, or chase a bigger price with better value?

If the latter, then I like going with an admittedly struggling Webb Simpson (50/1). For the former, though, I’ll stick with Conners, whose short number makes sense, considering he’s finished top 12 in four of his past six starts.

In the last two of those — the RBC Heritage and The Masters — Conners finished positive Strokes Gained: Putting for the week. This essentially confirms what we’ve always known about one of the game’s better ball-strikers: If he rolls it just above average, then he will get himself into contention.

The good news is that unless you’re writing a preview column with just a lone favorite outright play, you can bet both your favorite player to win and some value plays. So, this really shouldn’t be an either/or situation.

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I still wish we could find Conners maybe 5-10 points higher — and we should thoughtfully consider the strategy of hoping for a potential lackluster opening front-nine on Thursday, then jumping on a better live number.

For now, I’m going to stick with the guy I liked before the odds were released, despite really hating those eventual odds.

Top-5 Finish

Troy Merritt (12/1): One of my favorite plays on the board this week, I’ll have Merritt in a few different bets and platforms. He was T17 at the Quicken Loans on this course four years ago, won not too far away at RTJ back in 2015 and owns some nice recent form, with a T12 at the RBC Heritage and T4 at the Valero Texas Open in his last two starts.

The 36-year-old isn’t usually a guy who excites us too much in the marketplace, but there are plenty of signs that he’s trending in the right direction. In addition to those aforementioned results, he ranks in the top-half of the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, inside the top-third for approach shots and inside the top-25 putting.

If there’s a major weakness, it’s less in anything technical and more in his round-by-round scoring; though he’s 64th or better in R1, R2 and R3 scoring average, he ranks 152nd in final-round average.

Those recent strong finishes have included final-round totals of 68 and 69, though, so perhaps there’s reason to believe the two-time winner can climb the Sunday board once again.