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#A primer for Selection Sunday

“A primer for Selection Sunday”

By 7 p.m., 68 teams, all with one dream, will know their destinations, as the first true NCAA Tournament — one with sold-out crowds and all the accompanying festivities — in three years will be upon us.

The Post prepares you for the big day below:

No. 1s

The overall top seed isn’t up for debate. Gonzaga — which has lost to just St. Mary’s, Alabama and Duke — will land the coveted spot for the second straight year. The remaining No. 1s then likely go to Arizona, Kansas and either Baylor or Kentucky, in that order — after Kentucky, Baylor and Auburn were all tripped up in their respective conference tournaments.

Of the aforementioned four, Arizona should feel the most confident, since it has just three losses, compared to six for Kansas and seven for Kentucky. Baylor likely gets the edge over John Calipari’s Wildcats because the defending national champion have 18 Quad 1 and 2 wins — four more than Kentucky — and a better profile away from home.

Locals

It’s all about the Garden State, and in particular Piscataway, N.J. Seton Hall is a lock, mostly due to its strong non-conference schedule, which included wins over Rutgers, Michigan and Texas. The Pirates are projected to be a seventh or eighth seed, giving them a chance to advance.

Rutgers, which is firmly on the bubble, has a unique résumé: six Quad 1 wins, but three sub-Quad 2 losses; a NET ranking of 78, by far the lowest of any bubble team; and a dismal non-conference strength of schedule rated 355th in the nation. If the Scarlet Knights do get in — and if that does happen, expect them to be in Dayton for the First Four — they would make history for having the worst NET ranking (St. John’s, 73, 2019) since the system was installed in 2018.

MAAC champion St. Peter’s, which started the year 3-6, but closed with seven straight wins to make the tournament for the first time since 2011, is the third New Jersey team. The Peacocks, without a win in four Quad 1 and 2 games, are likely a 15-seed. A fourth school, Ivy League regular-season champion Princeton, has a shot to play its way in for the first time since 2017 if it can get by Yale in the conference title game on Sunday.

Look for the Tigers, with a solid NET for a mid-major of 102, to be slotted in as a 13.
This will be the first time since 2010 that a team from New York City, Long Island or Westchester County won’t make the NCAA Tournament.

The Bubble

Aside from Rutgers, Xavier is the most interesting team to watch. Based on its résumé, the Big East school should be in. It has a NET of 40 and five Quad 1 wins. But the Musketeers didn’t just limp to the finish line, they barely made it there, losing eight of their last 10.

The committee has said how you finish doesn’t matter. The entire body of work gets evaluated. But Xavier sure hasn’t looked like a tournament team in weeks.

Indiana likely played its way in by beating Michigan and Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament, while the Wolverines should be concerned. A 5-10 Quad 1 record is underwhelming, though a non-conference strength of schedule of 26 definitely helps.
The underwhelming ACC will be on pins and needles, as Notre Dame and Wake Forest hope for bids.

The league could well land just four teams in the Tournament. Texas A&M’s emergence — the Aggies beat Florida, Auburn and Arkansas in three successive days in the SEC Tournament to reach Sunday’s final — and Virginia Tech’s automatic bid for winning the ACC Tournament isn’t good for any of these teams. Neither is the possibility of Richmond joining Virginia Tech as a bid-stealer if it can top Davidson in the Atlantic 10 title game on Sunday.

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