Zach Wilson may be a long shot to start the season on the Jets’ active roster, but he’s the betting favorite to lead the league in a dubious honor.

Last year’s No. 2 overall pick, who showed flashes amid an uneven rookie season, is tied for the shortest betting odds at BetMGM (+800) to lead the NFL in interceptions in 2022. He’s priced alongside Texans quarterback Davis Mills (+800) as the co-favorite, while fellow sophomores Justin Fields (+900) and Trevor Lawrence (+1000) – who led the league in interceptions (17) in his first year – round out the top four in this unenviable field.

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NFL Futures: Odds to lead NFL in interceptions (BetMGM)

Will Zach Wilson lead NFL in interceptions in 2022?

Wilson may seem like a peculiar candidate to pace this market after throwing just 11 interceptions a year ago, which ranked 17th among all passers. A closer look at his profile suggests that the number could have been much higher.

As a rookie, the Jets quarterback ranked dead last among qualified passers in completion percentage (55.6%), and he ranked 32nd among 33 signal-callers in QBR (28.2). While his season total of 11 interceptions ranked outside of the top 15, he ranked 28th in passing attempts (383) – fewer than two-thirds of the total attempts from INT leaders Lawrence (602) and Matthew Stafford (601).

In his 13 starts last year, Wilson owned the NFL’s seventh-highest interception rate (2.9%) – higher than Lawrence or Stafford – and ranked 10th in interceptions per game (0.85). That includes a four-INT effort in Week 2 against the Patriots, joining eight other quarterbacks to throw four picks in a game in 2021.

There are silver linings to Wilson’s rocky first season, though. Seven of his 11 interceptions came in his first three starts, and he didn’t throw a pick in any of his final five starts. He also led all qualified starters in drop rate (12.7%), with a staggering 31 passes bouncing off his receivers’ hands.

That high drop rate means one of two things: he didn’t get a lot of help from his receivers, or he didn’t help them enough with precise ball placement. Given Wilson’s NFL-worst completion rate, it’s probably a combination of both, though adding top-10 pick Garrett Wilson and tight end C.J. Uzomah to a group that already features emerging wideouts Elijah Moore and Corey Davis is a boon for the sophomore QB.

There’s also the practical reality that, once again, Wilson seems highly unlikely to play a full 17-game slate. He’s already uncertain to play Week 1 after suffering a torn meniscus and bone bruise in last week’s preseason win, and the Jets have made it clear they won’t rush their potential franchise QB back onto the field.

Betting on the NFL?

Sure, an injured Wilson may be more susceptible to an ill-placed ball, but he’d have to be pretty rotten to pace the field in interceptions in a limited sample. Of the eight quarterbacks to throw at least 14 picks in 2021, all of them played in at least 16 games, and six of them made a full 17 starts.

So don’t put too much stock into Wilson’s embarrassing honor as the favorite in this field. He’s still an unlikely bet to post an NFL-worst mark in interceptions – even if his potential absence is his best defense.