There are a few surprising teams in the Round of 16 at the World Cup, but perhaps no team has written a more thrilling story of getting there than Japan.

After following up a stunning upset of Germany with a dreadful loss to Costa Rica, Samurai Blue needed a victory against Spain to advance to the knockout stages at the expense of Die Mannschaft. Not only did Japan pull it off, but they did it by coming back from a 1-0 deficit to top Group E ahead of Spain and Germany. 

Japan will need more magic on Monday to keep their run going. Bookmakers make Japan a +154 underdog to advance past Croatia. 

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Japan vs. Croatia prediction: Japan to advance +154 (FanDuel)

Japan has already shown us that they can beat anybody — and lose to anybody — on any given day. In their wins over Germany and Spain, Samurai Blue were able to sit back and wait for their moments, but in a loss to Costa Rica it was Samurai Blue that had most of the ball and they struggled to get anything going.

The good news for Japan, is even though they are underdogs against Croatia, the Checkered Ones profile pretty similarly to Spain and Germany. Croatia want to be on the ball and let their midfield control the flow of the game. That is music to Japanese ears, as Samurai Blue can deploy their preferred tactic of looking to create turnovers and create chances off counterattacks.

And if Samurai Blue can pull off that song and dance against two of the best teams in this field, they should be able to replicate it against Croatia, who may be the reigning runners up at the World Cup, but they are nowhere near the level of Germany and Spain.

Betting on the World Cup?

Even though they were able to claw their way through a competitive group that featured Morocco, Belgium and Canada, Croatia have looked rather meek through their first three matches of the tournament and were quite fortunate not to be eliminated by Belgium on Matchday 3. A similar performance will likely be punished by a clinical Japanese side.

Croatia will do everything they can to keep this game on-script and let Luka Modric run the show, but they’ll face a ton of pressure from Japan and they don’t have the quickness to snuff out counterattacks. 

Back the Japanese to add Croatia to their list of upsets on Monday.