#Wisconsin vs. Indiana, line prediction: Hoosiers the pick

Let’s dive right into the betting angles for some of my top college football games of the week: 

Wisconsin (-14.5, 45.5) vs. Indiana: Plenty of intrigue, and it starts with the line movement. Wisconsin opened as a 14-point favorite, though that line was immediately bet down to 9.5 and then back up to 14.5 when it was learned that Indiana quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is out for the season with a knee injury. Enter backup Jack Tuttle, who was one of the most coveted pro-style QBs in the class of 2017. He committed to Utah before transferring to Indiana. When he filled in last weekend, he completed all five throws for 31 yards. 

As for Wisconsin, what do we have in store as a bounce-back? The loss to Northwestern two weeks ago as a 7.5-point favorite was suboptimal. And now, the Badgers are ineligible to compete in the Big Ten Championship game, at least as it stands today, because they have had too many cancellations. Indiana’s loss at quarterback is massive, but it just feels like it might be a few too many points. 

Alabama (-28.5, 66.5) at LSU: This game is in Baton Rouge. Just a reminder, because this is a spread that just looks, well, off. That said, it’s not off. It’s just a staggering number to see for a rivalry that has captured the attention of college football across the last decade. The opt-out loss of Terrace Marshall Jr. at wide receiver is a crushing blow to an LSU offense that struggled to do much of anything last week against Texas A&M. The weather had something to do with it. (Also, LSU did somewhat miraculously cover the 15.5-point spread.) But the output was not rough, and the question is: Just how lopsided will this get? 

The good news for LSU is it has Derek Stingley Jr., the best cornerback in college football, to counter wide receiver DeVonta Smith. That is also good news for all of us from an entertainment standpoint. The bad news is basically everything else. Alabama is 8-0 and 6-2 against the spread. The Tide is averaging nearly 50 points per game and will likely enter this wanting a little payback after LSU’s win last year. It’s a lot of points, but the gap between these teams is simply massive. 

Iowa State (-6, 48.5) vs. West Virginia: The significance of this game for Iowa State cannot be overstated. The Cyclones are a win from securing a spot in the Big 12 Championship game after beating Texas 23-20 as 1.5-point favorites. West Virginia’s much-anticipated matchup against Oklahoma was called off due to COVID, though the Mountaineers have been largely impressive in 2020 as well. They’re 5-3 (5-2-1 ATS), and they’ve been competitive in pretty much every game. 

West Virginia also has a top-20 rushing defense, which is vital against a running back the caliber of Breece Hall. Iowa State will likely get plenty of public support given its performance over the last month. But West Virginia might be up for the challenge, if it can muster enough offense to keep pace.