Every year, we wait with bated breath to see our favorite screenwriters, actors, and directors walk the red carpet for The Academy Awards. The event is an international spectacle, drawing thousands of eyes worldwide to watch the ceremony. Oscar watching parties have become a tradition amongst fans as we all come together to cheer on our favorite film. It’s the Super Bowl of Celebrity, the Stanley Cup of Stardom, the Championship of Cinephilia. And it’s happening this Sunday, March 27, 2022.

The competition is tough this year, as almost every category is packed to the brim with films and actors that deserve to win. But those that deserve to win aren’t always winners. The Academy uses a preferential voting system that has been accused of creating unbalanced results. So instead, we’re going to pick who should win and who we think will actually win. There aren’t any small awards, but we’re looking at the categories normally called the Big Five: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Original Screenplay. So without further ado, here are our Oscar picks for 2022.

Best Picture

Who Should Win: CODA

Who Will Win: The Power of the Dog

This is a tough category filled not just with popular films but those with artistic merit as well. CODA seems to be the underdog this year. A fan favorite, and quickly accumulating a lot of smaller awards leading up to the Oscars, a lot of people want to see it win. But The Power of the Dog has 12 nominations making it the strongest candidate for the Academy. And a film without nominations in directing and editing, like CODA, hasn’t won since 1932. But competition is tough. Licorice Pizza is filled with happiness and tension. Dune represents a film that overcame a history of failures. And Drive My Car will hopefully win Best Adapted Screenplay.

Related: The Best Picture Oscar Nominees of 2022, in Order of Most Likely to Win

Best Director

Who Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Who Will Win: Jane Campion

Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated for an Oscar for six out of his nine films but has never won. He is a familiar auteur who consistently delivers enjoyable, varied, and quality films that astound critics across the board. But Jane Campion deserves this award. Denied of it in 1994 for her film The Piano, she became the first woman ever to be nominated for Best Director twice this year. And if she wins, it will be the first time a woman has won the award two years in a row, following Chloe Zhao’s win for Nomadland. But the category is again packed with heavy hitters. Steven Spielberg had a wonderful retelling of West Side Story, and Kenneth Branagh told a very important story in Belfast.

Best Actor

Who Should Win: Will Smith

Who Will Win: Will Smith

Will Smith is an experienced actor whose peak of super-stardom came in the early 2000s. While many of us remember him fondly from The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air, he proved himself more than just a prime-time TV actor over the course of his career. He was nominated for this award in 2002 for Ali and again in 2007 for The Pursuit of Happiness but lost both times. His role as Venus and Serena Williams’ father in King Richard put him in a unique position to bring his experience with fame and fatherhood to bear in this complex drama.

Related: Academy Awards 2022: This Year’s Biggest Oscar Snubs

Best Actress

Who Should Win: Penélope Cruz

Who Will Win: Jessica Chastain

A lot of the time, when someone wins Best Actor or Actress, they have the benefit of their film being nominated for Best Picture. This year, none of those nominated for Best Actress are in those films, making this category hard to judge statistically. And in situations like these, it’s best to go with your gut. But the talent in the nominations is amazing. Kristen Stewart had a surprising role as Princess Di. Nicole Kidman played Lucille Ball to a great depth of character in the biopic Being the Ricardos. And Penélope Cruz has traditionally been at her best when working with Pedro Almodovar. However, Jessica Chastain won the Screen Actors Guild award for female actor in a leading role for her performance in The Eyes of Tammy Faye, and this may be a good sign for her winning the Oscar.

Best Original Screenplay

Who Should Win: Licorice Pizza

Who Will Win: Don’t Look Up

This is an extremely tough call. Also in this category are King Richard, Belfast, and The Worst Person in the World. And it’s very difficult even to pick a favorite, Academy aside. Licorice Pizza is an enjoyable, positive film penned with the artistry of a practiced screenwriter. But Don’t Look Up almost redefines the disaster movie genre. Its political satire paired with its pressing environmental message creates a film with an overwhelming sense of urgency that makes it perfect for our current climate. Aside from being quintessentially an “original screenplay,” it’s a film everyone should see.

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