The PGA Championship begins Thursday at Southern Hills Country Club, and it’s shaping up to be a thrilling major.

The 7,481-yard course will transform into a Par-70 for its first PGA Championship hosting duties since 2007. That was won by none other than Tiger Woods, who recorded a two-shot victory over Woody Austin that week in Tulsa.

There will be some core difference between previous events at Southern Hills and this week’s major. A 2019 Gil Hanse restoration of the original Perry Maxwell design eliminated some trees and penal rough, so bettors should expect a high-scoring PGA event this week.

That sentiment was echoed by Jordan Spieth, who is looking to complete the career grand slam and at 20/1 finds himself tied for the seventh-shortest choice on the BetMGM board.

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“I think it’s going to be a really firm and fast PGA. … I think it’s going to be one of the higher scoring PGAs we’ve seen,” Spieth said.

Sitting atop the odds board for the event is 2022 Masters champion Scottie Scheffler (11/1), followed closely by Jon Rahm (12/1), Justin Thomas (14/1) and Rory McIlroy (14/1).

But before getting those wagers in pocket, here are some key stats and course correlations that could inform success this week.

Correlated courses

According to datagolf.com, there are a few courses on the PGA Tour schedule that are similar to this version of Southern Hills. Most recognizable are TPC Scottsdale (Waste Management Phoenix Open), the Summit Club (2021 CJ Cup), Winged Foot (2020 U.S. Open) and Liberty National (2019 and 2021 Northern Trust).

Past winners at those courses include Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Webb Simpson — the three last winners at the WMPO — McIlroy, who won the 2021 CJ Cup, and Bryson DeChambeau at the 2020 U.S. Open. As for the Northern Trust, the last two winners at Liberty National were Patrick Reed and Tony Finau, the latter of whom won in a playoff over Cameron Smith.

The common thread between all those players — and what will likely be rewarded at Southern Hills — is that all are accurate drivers with strong approach games. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some key stats that will impact play at this year’s PGA Championship.

Key betting stats

The logical place to start here is Par-4 scoring. That type of hole will be featured on 12 of 18 holes in Tulsa, so bettors will want to begin with how players get around Par 4s.

Additionally, strokes-gained: approach and strokes-gained: tee-to-green will carry heavy emphasis this week. At 7,400+ yards, Southern Hills will be quite a lengthy Par-70 setup, so be sure to look for players with strong mid- to long-irons in the bag. Additionally, although the rough won’t be as penal, driving accuracy will be rewarded here, especially considering a number of holes feature prominent doglegs.

Lastly, scrambling and sand save statistics will be something bettors should take into account. A good portion of the greens are protected by heavy bunkering, so bettors will want to find players who can get themselves out of trouble and avoid mistakes.

Taking all these factors into account will help bettors nail down which golfers to back and which golfers to avoid in the 2022 PGA Championship.