Our NFL betting writer brings you his best Browns vs. Steelers predictions and picks for their NFL Week 18 showdown, which is live Sunday on CBS at 1 p.m. ET.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have it all on the line Sunday when they host the AFC North-rival Cleveland Browns. The Steelers (8-8) need to handle their business against the Browns (7-9) and hope for a bit of help in two other games played on Sunday.

In addition to a win on Sunday, Pittsburgh also will need a loss or a tie by both the New England Patriots (to the Buffalo Bills) and the Miami Dolphins (to the New York Jets) to qualify for the playoffs for the third consecutive season. Should the Steelers tie the Browns, they’d need losses by both the Patriots and Dolphins.

Browns vs. Steelers picks

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Browns vs. Steelers prediction and analysis

The respective rushing games of the Browns and Steelers — and how each team’s defense responds to the ground attack — will go a long way in determining the outcome of the game. Cleveland will put its NFL sixth-best rushing attack (147.3 yards per game) on the line against Pittsburgh’s seventh-ranked rush defense (106.5), while the Steelers’ 17th-ranked ground attack (120.6) will look to have its way versus the Browns’ 25th-ranked rush defense (134.4).

The respective passing games are nothing to write home about, although there are positives to be had. Pittsburgh rookie Kenny Pickett has paid modest dividends since becoming the starter and has kept the ball out of the opposition’s hands in six of his last seven games. Deshaun Watson has overcome a sluggish start since his return from suspension to toss three touchdowns in the second half of Cleveland’s 24-10 win over Washington last week.

Neither quarterback played in the teams’ first meeting, a 29-point Browns victory on Sept. 22.

Steelers to cover-2.5

Admittedly, both teams have reason to play. We’ve chronicled the Steelers’ motivation above, while the Browns likely would relish keeping their hated rivals out of the postseason.

All eyes are on Pickett in this one. Now, the rookie likely isn’t going to put up gaudy stats in a must-win game for his club, however he has proven to be smart with the football — save for his three-interception performance versus the Miami Dolphins on Oct. 23.

Pittsburgh has won four of the last five home meetings with Cleveland, and Pickett will do just enough to send his club to victory on Sunday as well.

Pick: Steelers to cover-2.5 @ -110 at Caesars Sportsbook

Najee Harris anytime touchdown scorer -130

Najee Harris has scored a touchdown on six occasions (five rushing, one receiving) in his last seven games and also found the end zone in the previous encounter versus the Browns.

Harris rushed for a season-best 111 yards on 5.0 yards per carry in Pittsburgh’s 16-13 win over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.

The second-year running back also scored in both of his contests against the Browns last year.

Pick: Najee Harris to score a touchdown @ -130 at Caesars Sportsbook

Betting on the NFL?

Under 40 total points

Sunday’s game likely isn’t going to be aesthetically pleasing. 

Pittsburgh’s offense is mustering an NFL fourth-worst 17.5 points per game. Cleveland is producing a respectable 21.7, however it totaled 33 points over a three-game stretch before last week’s second-half eruption.

The teams will rely on their respective ground games and ultimately keep the clock moving, resulting in fewer possessions. Yes, the under is only 40, but take it and don’t look back.

Pick: Under 40.0 points @ -110 at Caesars Sportsbook

Browns vs. Steelers odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, accurate at the time of publishing, subject to change.